Who will Secure the Final Western Conference Playoff Spots?
February 28, 2019By: CJ Buck, Basketball Analyst
Locks to make the playoffs:
1. Golden State Warriors (43-18)
2. Denver Nuggets (42-18)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (38-22)
4. Portland Trail Blazers (38-23)
5. Houston Rockets (36-25)
6. Utah Jazz (34-26)
Teams fighting for the 7th and 8th seeds:
7. San Antonio Spurs (34-29)
8. LA Clippers (34-29)
9. Sacramento Kings (31-30)
10. Los Angeles Lakers (30-31)
11. Minnesota Timberwolves (29-32)
My Projections for seeds 7 – 11
7. San Antonio Spurs
The last time the Spurs missed the playoffs Karl Malone won MVP and future Hall of Famers Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen, and Steven Nash were all rookies. In my opinion, San Antonio’s current standing in the West is a little skewed. They are coming off their annual Rodeo Road Trip in which they went 1-7. To finish the season, they have 11 home games compared to just 8 road games. This is significant because the Spurs have a horrendous 11-22 record in road games this season, while going 23-7 at home. They’re more likely to leapfrog the Jazz for the sixth seed than they are to fall out of the playoff race entirely.
8. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are currently three games behind the eighth seeded Clippers and they have the second toughest remaining schedule of the five teams fighting for the last two seeds (Minnesota has the second toughest remaining schedule in the entire NBA). While they have a tougher schedule than the Clippers and Kings, they also have one major thing going for them that no other team has, LeBron James. I’ll be one of the first people to admit that since his return from injury LeBron has not looked the same. Coming into this week, I had three differing opinions on what could be causing LeBron’s poor performance: age had finally caught up to him, he was still injured, or he was just out of shape. I’ve come to the conclusion that LeBron was/is simply out of shape after missing nearly two months of action. He had never missed that much time due to injury, and the fact that it was an injury to his lower body meant that he was obviously limited in what he could do for aerobic training. He played 40 minutes in his first game back from injury and admitted that he was extremely sore the next day, which was the main reason he was held out of their next game for ‘Load Management’. But have you seen some of the dunks he had at the All-Star Game and in games during this week? Those dunks have shown me enough explosiveness to shut down the idea that either he’s still injured or that age has caught up with him. I think the more games LeBron and the Lakers play, the better he and they will look. The Lakers should start looking more like the team that was fourth place in the West in December, especially since Lonzo Ball could be returning in about a week to help shore up their defense. It’s also hard to picture LeBron, who’s played in eight straight NBA Finals, sitting at home while either the Kings or Clippers make the playoffs.
9. Los Angeles Clippers
It’s honestly impressive that the Clippers are even in this position. After trading away Tobias Harris most people assumed they’d fall out of the playoff race, but they’ve pretty much maintained the same win pace. Harris was a huge loss for the Clippers starting lineup, but their bench has been the thing carrying them to wins for most of the season. The reason I have them finishing the season outside of the playoffs, however, is that their youth and lack of top-end talent could cause them to lose some extremely important games that they have coming up. Five of their next six games will have major implications as to whether they make the playoffs or not, when they face the Kings, Lakers, Thunder, Celtics, and Trail Blazers. They could easily end up losing four or even all five of those games, which would more than likely already put them behind the Kings and Lakers in the standings. If they can survive that stretch of five games, they’ll also have another tough test to close out the season. Their last four games of the season come against the Rockets, Lakers, Warriors, and Jazz. Considering the Clippers have struggled against good teams this season (they have a 14-18 record against teams over .500),they’ll likely limp to the end of the season with 11 of their remaining 19 games coming against teams currently in the playoffs or fighting for a playoff spot. They also have two head-to-head matchups with the Lakers, and they’ll likely have to play against back-against-the-wall LeBron in both.
10. Sacramento Kings
Sacramento has arguably the most promising young core in the entire NBA and they should be a lock to make the playoffs for a number of upcoming seasons. That being said, I think their youth and the recent injury to Marvin Bagley III will keep them out of the playoffs this season. Bagley had been playing extremely well recently, averaging 17.5 points and 9.4 rebounds in 29 minutes over his last 10 games. The Kings have already lost four of their past five games, and the loss of Bagley likely means things will get worse before they get better. You’d think the addition of Harrison Barnes at the trade deadline would help make up for the loss of Bagley, but he’s disappointed in the seven games he’s played for the Kings, averaging 11 points, 7.4 rebounds, 35% field goal shooting, and 28% shooting from three in 36 minutes per game. De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, and BogdanBogdanovic are playing excellent, but they’re probably a year away from being able to carry this team into the playoffs, especially without Bagley and with a struggling Barnes.
11. Minnesota Timberwolves
While the Timberwolves are mathematically still in the hunt for the playoffs, it’s hard to picture any scenario in which they finish the season by passing the Lakers, Kings, and Clippers in the standings. Behind only the Thunder, Minnesota has the second toughest remaining schedule in the NBA, only further hindering any chance they have at making a playoff run.
