MVP Series: One Player from Each AFC Team Who Could Win MVP

Series by Ryan Scimone

 

AFC East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New England Patriots: Tom Brady

The GOAT. Greatest Of All Time. TB12. Five time Super Bowl Champion. Four time Super Bowl MVP. Three time league MVP and reigning NFL MVP. Tom Brady! Honestly, if this pick surprises you you probably don’t watch football, have any idea what’s going on in the world, or you’re just dumb. Tom Brady has literally been in the MVP discussion every year since 2004. The only real concerns for Patriots fans this year are his age, Brady is 41 years old, and the fact that he lost many of his most trusted offensive weapons this offseason. Playoff standout, Danny Amendola, leading WR, Brandin Cooks, and leading rusher, Dion Lewis, will all be playing elsewhere this coming season. However, Julian Edelman is back to full strength and should help cushion the blow from losing these guys after he serves his four-game suspension. The Pats also snagged Georgia RB, Sony Michel, in the first round of the 2018 Draft. He should be an immediate contributor and could lead the team in carries and yards this season. Now, for Brady’s age, I understand the concerns some people may have(he is 41 after all), but until he starts to show signs of slowing down, it’s hard to bet against the guy.  

 

Buffalo Bills: RB Lesean McCoy

The Bills were one of the toughest teams for me to pick an MVP candidate from. At QB, they have an incredibly raw rookie in Josh Allen, who’s about to make the leap from playing football at Wyoming to playing in the NFL. That basically leaves me with a 30-year old Lesean McCoy as the only player with the talent and opportunity to have a shot at MVP. His only real chance at the MVP this year is if he can turn back the clock and put on a performance similar to his 2013 season. That year, Shady amassed 2146 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. He would need to somehow match that yardage, add a few more TDs, lead his team to the playoffs, and hope for some weak competition around the league to claim his first MVP award.

 

Miami Dolphins: RB Kenyan Drake

The Miami Dolphins were probably the toughest team for me to pick an MVP candidate from. Not only do they lack an elite NFL talent, but their roster also seems to be absent of any budding young superstars. Just a year ago, they appeared to have one of the league’s most promising young running backs in Jay Ajayi. But, after a poor stretch of games to start the season, concerns over his motivation to play, and questions over his fit in Miami’s scheme, they dealt him away to Philly for a 4th round pick. That left the Dolphins with passing downs specialist, Damian Williams, and second year Alabama product, Kenyan Drake. Running behind a very weak and banged up o-line, Drake was surprising more effective with the ball in his hands than Ajayi was. In 6 starts, he ran for 494 yards and a pair of TDs to the very efficient tune of 4.94 yards per attempt. I know its a stretch, but Kenyan Drake is the most dynamic player on this Miami Dolphins roster. If they are going to have any success this season, it will be on the shoulders of this big play back. It will take a massive breakout year and a lot of luck, but Drake is the only player in Miami with a feasible shot at the MVP.

 

New York Jets: Sam Darnold

Similar to the Dolphins, the Jets were another team I struggled to find any sort of elite offensive talent on. So, I took the easy way out and just picked the guy who I believe will start at quarterback for the team come Week 1. Darnold is the most talented QB this team has and they just invested the third overall pick in the guy. If he’s even close to ready, I don’t see Todd Bowles hesitating to name him as their starter sooner rather than later. For Darnold to have any shot at the MVP, he would have to put together an historic season. Some of the best rookie seasons we have seen from quarterbacks have been from two guys analysts compare Darnold’s game too. Ben Roethlisberger for one, threw for 2621 yards, 17 TDs, and 11 INTs to along with a 13-0 record back in his rookie year. Andrew Luck, for another, totaled 4374 yards, 23 TDs, and 18 INTs. So yeah, very unrealistic for Darnold to have a shot at MVP this year, but I guess anything is possible. He would need to have the greatest rookie season of all time in order to achieve the feat.

 

 

AFC North

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cincinnati Bengals: WR AJ Green

Yeah I know, no WR has ever won MVP in the history of the NFL’s existence. However, times are starting to change and recent performances by guys like Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. has gained WRs some traction in the MVP discussion. And although AJ Green doesn’t get quite the same hype or spotlight as guys like that, he’s very much in the discussion for best WR in the league. Keep in mind, in each of his seven NFL seasons, Green has reached the Pro Bowl despite playing with a relatively pedestrian QB in Andy Dalton and no other real threat at WR to take coverage away from him. With a healthy John Ross, and a second year Joe Mixon catching passes and running behind a slightly improved line, he could have enough talent around him to keep the double teams limited. If that happens, Andy Dalton continues to pepper him with targets, and he makes some clutch game altering plays, I could see a situation where he’s in the discussion for MVP. 1850 yards, 125 receptions, and 16 touchdowns could get it done for AJ Green.

 

Baltimore Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson

Yep, that’s right. I believe rookie QB Lamar Jackson has the best shot out of anyone on this Ravens roster to win MVP. But how could I pick a guy who might not even see the field this year as an MVP candidate? Well, my thinking is this: We’ve seen Joe Flacco before, and he’s not close to an MVP level player. He never has been. The notation of him being an “elite” NFL quarterback is now so far in the past that it’s literally a joke. Flacco’s best statistical season was back in 2014 when he threw for 3986 yards, 27 TDs, and 12 INTs. That’s a solid a season for most quarterbacks, but its not MVP caliber. Jackson, on the other hand, has the type of playmaking abilities that can win games, while putting up Madden-like numbers. Could a season rivaling Mike Vick’s incredible 2010 season(3018 passing yards, 676 rushing yards 30 total TDs, 6 INTs, and a 100.2 rating in 12 games played) be enough to claim MVP in today’s NFL? Maybe and maybe not, but if anyone can outdo Vick at his own game it’s Lamar Jackson.

 

Cleveland Browns: QB Tyrod Taylor

This season’s new-look Brown’s team is full of exciting young players. From talented rookies like Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb to established NFL stars like Jarvis Landry and Josh Gordon, this Cleveland squad has the pieces in place to contend in the near future. And although Mayfield is undoubtedly the future of the franchise, all reports indicate that the starting job is Tyrod Taylor’s to lose. However, even with an abundance of weapons at his disposal, an MVP season from the likes of Tyrod would be nothing short of miraculous. But just what exactly would it take to pull off this miracle? Well for starters, Tyrod would need to play a much more aggressive style than he did during his Buffalo days. His most productive season was back in 2015 when threw for 3035 yards, 20 TDs, and just 6 INTs in 14 games. He also added 568 yards and 4 TDs on the ground. These numbers are alright, but with guys like Aaron Rodgers routinely throwing for 40 TDs and 4000+ yards, they’re not close to MVP caliber. For Tyrod to be in the MVP discussion come January he’ll need to throw for at least 30 TDs, approach 4000 yards, keep his INTs low, and continue to be productive running the football. But, what may be the most important factor in a “Tyrod for MVP” campaign is the media. For years now, the Browns have been the laughing stock of the NFL. Seemingly doomed to forever dwell in the basement of the league, no matter how many top picks they make. If Tyrod puts up respectable numbers AND leads the Browns back to the playoffs the hype surrounding his MVP could blow up.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers: RB Le’Veon Bell

Once again, the Steelers and Le’Veon Bell failed to reach an agreement on a long term contract, meaning he will play a second consecutive season under the franchise tag. Nevertheless, as long as he plays all 16 games this year, he has a good chance of finding himself in the MVP discussion by season’s end. For the last four years or so, Bell has been the best all around running back in the NFL. He almost single handedly revolutionized the position by becoming an effective receiver and route runner not only out of the backfield, but also from the slot and split out wide. Over the last four years, Bell has averaged 92.4 rushing yards, 5.3 receptions, and 42.8 receiving yards per game. That’s an average of over 135 scrimmage yards per game. Translated to a 16 game sample that would total 2,163 yards, just a about 100 yards shy of Adrian Peterson’s total yardage from his 2012 MVP campaign. In order for Bell to become more of favorite in the MVP discussion, he needs to impact the Steelers season a little bit more. If an injury to Big Ben or Antonio Brown happened to arise and Bell had to carry the load of the offense he could quickly become the leader in the MVP race.

 

 

AFC South

 

 

 

 

Indianapolis Colts: QB Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck was once seen as the next great NFL quarterback. The man who’s potential was seen as so vast, the Colts elected to rebuild around him rather than bring back Peyton Manning. Impressively, during the first three years of Luck’s career, he was actually living up to the hype. In just his first season, he threw for 4374 yards, 23 TDs, and 18 INTs, leading a Colts team that finished just 2-14 a season prior to the playoffs with an 11-5 record. The following two seasons, Luck continued to improve his numbers while cutting down on his turnovers. In 2014, he almost threw for 5000 yards to go along with 40 TD passes against 16 INTs. He led the Colts back to the AFC Championship Game where their promising year was ended by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Since that season, Luck has struggled mightily to stay on the football field, missing time in each of the last three years. In 2015, he missed nine games with a lacerated kidney. In 2016, Luck injured his shoulder midway through the season, missing just their Week 12 matchup with Pittsburgh. That offseason, he underwent a routine procedure on his injured shoulder and after an odd series of circumstances, he ended up sitting out the entire 2017 season while rehabbing this injury. Despite the drama surrounding this situation, all reports indicate Luck is on track to start Week 1 of the 2018 season. If he can stay healthy, Luck may return to the most talented Colts roster he’s had during his short career. With three first round picks and a second round pick set to start at offensive line, the Colts finally have the talent to protect Andrew Luck. TY Hilton, Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron, and a talented trio of young running backs should also provide him with the weapons he needs to return to form and contend for an MVP.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: RB Leonard Fournette

Coming out of LSU, Fournette was one of the most hyped running back prospects in recent history. But, despite rushing for over 1000 yards and 9 TDs, he was largely overshadowed by the spectacular performances of other rookie RBs like Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara. However, Fournette was great in his own right. And even if he did not put up the same statistics as other top RBs around the league, he did help change the narrative of the Jacksonville Jaguars organization. Before his arrival, the Jags were viewed as a doomed organization, destined to, at some point relocate to England. Now, lead by the league’s best rushing attack and an elite defense, Jacksonville is viewed as a Super Bowl favorite. For Fournette to get some MVP love, he’s going to have to stay healthy for 16 games and build on his rookie production. With an improved offensive line and better weapons for Blake Bortles, Fournette should face fewer seven man fronts. A one seed in the AFC along with 1800+ rushing yards and 15 TDs could give him the MVP.

 

Tennessee Titans: QB Marcus Mariota

After a promising start to his career, Marcus Mariota, battled injury and regression in his third season as the Titans starting QB. To have any chance at claiming the NFL’s most prestigious regular season award he will have to play like the guy he was in his sophomore season. That year, Mariota threw for 3426 yards, 26 TDs and just 9 INTs. He also added solid rushing stats, going for 349 yards and 2 TDs. That season, Mariota displayed the pinpoint accuracy and dual-threat capabilities that led him to be selected with the 2nd overall pick in the 2015 draft. He entered the 2017 season as a dark horse MVP candidate, but struggled all year throwing the football. That season, Mariota posted easily his worst stat line of his brief career with just 3232 yards, 13 TDs, and 15 INTs. Despite his horrid play, the Titans finished the year at 9-7 and made the playoffs as a wild card team. Tennessee, no doubt, has a talented roster, but their chances of making a playoff run will hinge on whether or not Mariota can regain his 2016 form. With one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, two young talented WRs, a reliable TE in Delanie Walker, and a one-two punch at running back, he has more than enough help to put together a career year. If Mariota plays to his potential and effectively utilizes the weapons at his disposal, an MVP campaign is not out of reach. Look for him to bounce back in a big way in 2018.

 

Houston Texans: QB Deshaun Watson

If you’re looking for a dark horse MVP candidate, Deshaun Watson should be your guy. After the Texans traded up in the 2017 Draft to snag him with the 12th overall pick, it was only a matter of time until he made his highly anticipated debut. It took just one half of Houston’s season opener for Bill O’Brien to pull Tom Savage in favor of the rookie. From that moment on, it became clear Watson had all the tools necessary to become a successful, if not great, NFL quarterback. In just his second start, he went into New England and lit up Belichick’s defense to the tune of 342 yards and 2 TDs. However, Watson’s most impressive performance of the year came in Week 8 against the Seattle Seahawks and the vaunted Legion of Boom. In a game that would end up being his last of the season, he went for 469 yards and 4 TDs in a 38-41 shootout loss. Despite playing the entirety of the game, it was revealed a few days later that Watson had suffered a torn ACL and would be forced to miss the rest of the season after undergoing reconstructive knee surgery. He finished his rookie season with 21 total TDs(19 passing, 2 rushing) and 1968 total yards(1699 passing, 269 rushing), while posting a passer rating of 103.0 through six starts. At the time of his injury, Watson led the league in TDs and passer rating. His 19 passing TDs were also the most by any player in their first seven games in NFL history. This year, the Texans return all their key contributors from last season. Not to mention, the addition of Tyrann Mathieu and return of JJ Watt should help shore up an iffy defense that cost the team some games in 2017. As long as Watson returns to 100%, he’ll be a legitimate MVP candidate for years to come.

 

 

AFC West

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Denver Broncos: LB Von Miller

Since being taken by the Denver Broncos with the number two overall pick back in 2011, Von Miller has been one of the most feared defensive players in the league. Back in 2015, Miller staked his claim to be considered not only the best defensive player, but also the league’s best overall player when he recorded 5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and an INT in just 3 playoff games. He was awarded Super Bowl MVP for his dominating effort against Cam Newton and the 15-1 Carolina Panthers.  The vaunted Denver defense has taken several steps back since that game. Just last year, the Broncos finished tied for 22nd in the NFL in points allowed per game at 23.9. However, with the addition of Case Keenum at quarterback, this Denver defense should find itself off the field much more often than last year. They also got, what could be the steal of the draft, in DE Bradley Chubb at 5th overall in this year’s draft. Nevertheless, the Broncos are going to need Von Miller locked in each and every snap if they want to make a push for the playoffs this season. With Chubb limiting double teams, Miller has a chance to feast on opposing offensive lines. This could be the year Michael Strahan’s long standing, single-season sack record of 22.5 is finally be broken. An historic feat such as that complete with a top seed in the AFC could give Miller the leverage he needs to be just the third defensive player named NFL MVP.

 

Kansas City Chiefs: RB Kareem Hunt

One of the surprise stories from the 2017 NFL season was the emergence of 3rd round rookie Kareem Hunt. After RB Spencer Ware went out with a knee injury in the preseason, Hunt was thrusted into the starting role. He burst onto the scene in Week 1 when he rushed for 148 yards, and 1 TD, to go along with 5 receptions for 98 yards and 2 TDs. Throughout the first five games of the 2017 season, Hunt was the league’s best player and leading MVP candidate, as he averaged 155 scrimmage yards per game and scored 6 TDs. After that, he seemed to hit a rookie wall. His production began dwindling by the week and it became apparent he was not yet acclimated to being a bellcow back in the NFL. It took until Week 14 for Hunt to resemble the player he was early on in the season. With the return of Spencer Ware and a year of experience under his belt, Hunt’s workload should be much more manageable in 2018. If he can sustain the type of player he was to begin and end his rookie year, there’s no reason he can’t win an MVP. Just for reference, Hunt’s numbers from Weeks 1-5 projected to a 16 game season would translate to 2480 scrimmage yards, and 19 TDs. Those are MVP numbers.

 

Los Angeles Chargers: QB Philip Rivers

Philip Rivers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the the NFL over the last decade or so. He has always fringed on the elite tier of QBs in the league but has never had the support he needed to get passed both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the AFC. As such, Rivers has yet to win or even appear in a Super Bowl, a huge knock on his legacy. Despite his lack of playoff success, RIvers has always put together solid regular season stats. HIs best season was back in 2013, when he lead the Chargers to a 9-7 record and a playoff berth. That year Rivers earned a Pro-Bowl knod by passing for 4478 yards, 32 TDs, and 11 INTs. He also posted a, career high, 69.5% completion percentage and the league’s fourth best passer rating with a 106.3. These numbers are eerily similar to Tom Brady’s 2017 MVP campaign which saw him post 4577 yards, 32 TDs, 8 INTs, and a 102.8 rating. So yes, Rivers has the talent to play at an MVP level, but will he have the necessary weapons to realistically compete for the award this season? Well, for starters, he has a legit number one WR in Keenan Allen who, as long as he stays healthy, is as dangerous as anyone with the ball in his hands. Then, he also has one of the games most reliable running backs in Melvin Gordon who can easily take the pressure off of Rivers and keep opposing defenses honest. One player that will be a real X-factor for not just Rivers, but this entire Chargers team will be WR Mike Williams. With Hunter Henry out for year with a torn ACL they will need the talented, big-bodied wide receiver to become a red zone threat. If Williams has a breakout year, and this Chargers roster can finally stay healthy Rivers should carry this team back to playoffs. That type of year should give him a legit shot at MVP this season.  

 

Oakland Raiders: QB Derek Carr

After an MVP caliber season in 2016, Derek Carr and the Raiders came crashing back to earth last year. Carr’s epic 2016 ended with a broken fibula in a Week 16 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. He threw for 3937 yards, 28 TDs, and just 6 INTs en route to a 12-3 record. Then, after being viewed as a trendy Super Bowl pick last year, the Raiders crumbled under the pressure of repeating their success. Carr’s claim as the brightest young QB in the league dwindled after a mediocre 3rd year, which saw his stats stumble to just 3496 yards, 22 TDs, and 13 INTs. With new offensive minded head coach and QB guru, Jon Gruden, now at the helm for the Raiders, Carr could recapture his form of just two years ago. With Oakland expected to boast one of the league’s best offensive lines, two Pro-Bowl WRs in Jordy Nelson and Amari Cooper, and a capable group of running backs there’s no reason Carr can’t bounce back this season. He should be viewed as a legit dark horse MVP candidate in 2018.