MLB Preview: AL West

Last year, this was expected to be a tightly contested 3-horse race between the Rangers, Mariners, and Astros. That was on paper… in reality, the Astros ran away with it. There was never really a doubt about who was taking home the AL West crown, as Houston won it by 21 games over the Angels. Will 2018 yield a similar result? Let’s take a closer look at how the teams are built this year.

5th Place – Texas Rangers

The 2010-2017 Rangers were widely regarded as one of the mainstays of the American League, churning out consistent great seasons (including win totals of 95, 88, 91, 93, 96, and 90). However, times have changed. After a 78-win season last year, the Rangers future just became a whole lot cloudier. They no longer have a strong farm system to dip into, and their young talents all had (Mazara, Gallo, Odor) all had down seasons. Gallo and Odor are high-variance players, hitting barely above .200 but both capable of hitting 40 homers. You can’t really build a sustainable lineup around that. That young trio is critical to the future of this team. Elvis Andrus and 38-year-old Adrian Beltre, two of the experienced Rangers, have been putting this team’s production on their backs. In 2018, the lineup should be competent enough during stretches to make the Rangers capable of winning games in bunches. The pitching rotation, led by 34-year-old Cole Hamels, does not have enough talent to carry this team. A lot of things are going to have to go right for Matt Moore, Mike Minor, and Doug Fister (three questionable arms) for the Rangers to be good. Thank goodness that Texas picked up Seung Hwan-Oh, a capable closer, because their bullpen was a major flaw coming into this season. If everything goes well, expect this Rangers team to be within striking distance of a Wild Card spot. If things go awry, they could be looking at a last place finish in their division.

4th Place – Oakland Athletics

The Athletics, despite finishing last in 2017 in the AL West, finally have developed some guys that could potentially become cornerstones of this franchise. As long as they don’t trade them away before they become superstars (there is plenty of history of the A’s doing that), Oakland is actually taking small steps toward a positive future. The first place to look is their lineup. They don’t really have any consistent .300+ hitters, but Matt Olsen and Khris Davis both have 40-homer potential. Olsen is a young first baseman that could easily become a premier power hitter (24 homers in 59 games last year!), while Davis has become the steady veteran presence for this squad to go along with his bat. The A’s brought in Stephen Piscotty from the Cardinals to enhance their lineup, who will likely provide consistent production in the back of their order. The pitching staff has two key arms in Kendall Graveman and Sean Manaea, both of whom need to take a big step this year. They’re stuck in the high 3’s and low 4’s in ERA; not quite the numbers you want to see from your frontline starters. Top pitching prospect AJ Puk could be a midseason callup, but he is ways away from having a real impact on this team. Overall, the lineup will be the lifeblood of this team. The power bats will hopefully carry this Athletics squad to a not-last-place finish in the AL West, then next year they can re-evaluate.

3rd Place – Seattle Mariners

2017 was a disappointment for this Mariners team, who came into the year expecting to compete with the Astros for the division crown. They made a couple splashes this offseason, adding Dee Gordon from the Marlins and Ryon Healy from the Athletics. Both these guys should become pretty big pieces in a very solid, top-to-bottom lineup. Gordon is going to hit for a great average, get on base at a high clip, and score a ton of runs. Adding him in front of household names like Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz will certainly help the Mariners offensive production. Healy and Kyle Seager have similar player prototypes – a .270 batting average, solid OBP, and around 25 home runs. The Mariners playoff push in 2018, however, will require the rotation to be competent. James Paxton is a capable ace, but having a career high of only 136 innings pitched raises questions about his durability. Felix Hernandez has a ton of miles on his arm. After sitting out with injury for much of last season, maybe he will be a little fresher this year? Behind them are two guys that can hopefully provide some dependability, albeit with less than elite production. Mike Leake and Erasmo Ramirez should eat up a decent amount of innings – and hopefully churn out some wins behind that run-producing lineup. Meanwhile in the bullpen, Edwin Diaz should be a lockdown guy in the 9th. He has a little trouble with control, but his high 90’s fastball and elite slider will be a welcome sight at the end of games for Seattle. I expect this team to be neck and neck with the Angels competing for a Wild Card spot.

2nd Place – Los Angeles Angels

Mike Trout finished out his 7th year as a member of the Angels and they still have yet to win a playoff game during his tenure. 2017 produced mixed results for this Angels squad – they outperformed their preseason predictions, but the injury bug ravaged through their team and left them with a feeling of untapped potential. There is a whole lot more pressure in 2018 for these guys now. A full season of Justin Upton wearing Angels red, a healthy season from Mike Trout, and offseason acquisitions of Ian Kinsler (.236, 22HR) and Zach Cozart (.297 24HR) have the potential to make this lineup the best it has been in years. They will add to a lineup that also just saw Andrelton Simmons have an unlikely career year in 2017 (.284, 14HR, 19 stolen bases). The rotation got a big boost in the offseason with one of the biggest international signings yet, nabbing the two-way star Shohei Ohtani. He immediately becomes the ace of their rotation, ahead of Garrett Richards – who could finally be in line for a career year himself. The combination of Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker, and JC Ramirez will make or break the Angels this season. If one or two of those guys can post a mid-3.00 ERA with 15 wins, the Angels will make some serious noise down the stretch. As it stands now, I expect this team to be well in the running for the top Wild Card spot after an 87-89 win season. That being said, they’re still ways away from being in the same class as the Astros.  

1st Place – Houston Astros

That brings us to the reigning World Series Champs, who will be returning in 2018 with their ungodly talented trio of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer. There’s not too much more to say about these guys except explore about how the lineup looks around them. Alex Bregman is primed to thrive in the 2-hole between Springer and Altuve, who provide the future star with a good cushion. Bregman had a solid season in 2017, hitting .284 with 19 homers. This year is going to be a big one for him offensively; expect him to jump into the tier of true elite hitters in baseball. Yuli Gurriel quietly hit .300 last year, and Josh Reddick also came through with a career year (.314 BA). Evan Gattis will be a 35-homer threat once again from the DH spot. Simply put, Houston’s lineup is still far and away the best in baseball (any talk of the 2018 Yankees is still nonsense). Their rotation is going to get better after adding Gerrit Cole, who will benefit from the Astros’ elite pitching coaches. Cole, Keuchel, Verlander, and (hopefully) a healthy season from Lance McCullers will be a fearsome foursome. The Astros will likely have the best record in the AL and attempt to defend their title unless some crazy injuries come their way.

Written by Matt Loehle