Potential Landing Spots for Manny Machado
July 5, 2018By Matt Loehle, Senior Baseball Analyst
Tanking and rebuilding have always been part of baseball. Over the past 5 years, however, the worst-to-first stories of the Astros and Cubs have inspired GMs to take the idea of rebuilding to extreme measures. Any player with value is dumped for prospects, leaving franchises with a loaded farm system but a skeleton at the major league level (see: White Sox). With the July 31st trade deadline coming up on the horizon, expect the bad teams to get even worse as they send their valuable trade chips to the good teams gearing up for playoff runs. The Orioles will likely be at the forefront of this trade frenzy, as third-baseman Manny Machado is a sure-fire bet to be heading out of town this summer. Machado is on the final year of his current contract, so any team that picks up his services will have to pony up and pay him big bucks if they want to keep him around after this season. Obviously, the Orioles are in no position to give him a $300+ million dollar contract, so why not shop him for some blue-chip prospects while you can? I expect that to be exactly what happens: a playoff-caliber team rolls the dice on Machado, trades away a high-level prospect, and attempts to resign him for an ungodly amount of money after the 2018 season. Let’s take a look at the possible landing spots for Machado and how realistic each scenario might be…
Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-Backs seem to be one of the favorites and most sensical place for Machado to land. The left side of their infield currently consists of 3B Jake Lamb and SS Ketel Marte, who are both hitting sub- .250. For a team jockeying for 1st place in the NL West with the Dodgers, that isn’t going to cut it. If Arizona wants to make a legit push in the postseason, they are going to need Machado in their lineup to supplement Goldschmidt. The need is there, and the fit is there. The Diamondbacks also have the resources to meet the Orioles’ asking price. First baseman Pavin Smith is one of the top prospects in their system and would be a logical piece to move for Machado. I like this fit and would see it as a great move by Arizona, a team that is *almost* there. GRADE: A
Boston Red Sox: Dave Dombrowski is never satisfied. The Red Sox offense is top-heavy, and a recent stretch of poor run production had sparked rumors about the possibility of acquiring the Orioles’ star. However, the Sox farm system is severely depleted since Dombrowski’s arrival. Any trade for Machado would likely involve 21-year-old Rafael Devers, a guy who is already a producing member of their lineup despite his age. I think gambling on Machado signing with the Sox long term, for an exorbitant amount of money, is not worth 5-6 years of development from a low-cost Devers. Boston is better off looking elsewhere for back-of-the-order hitting production. GRADE: C
Philadelphia Phillies: I bet Manny Machado has been on Philly’s radar for a few years now. They have the 2018 offseason circled on their calendar, because that’s when they can flex their financial muscles. A blockbuster midseason trade in 2018, however, is probably not a milestone in the Phillies’ rebuilding process. It doesn’t make sense for the Phillies to mortgage some of their future by trading away prospects for a couple months of Machado. He doesn’t push them over the edge this season. They’ll get their shot at him – after the season, when he explores free agency. Just not now. GRADE: D
Chicago Cubs: The Cubs are in a similar position as the Phillies, except they could use Machado’s services more now. Sacrificing future to load up for a postseason push is only worthwhile when you have a really, really good chance at winning the World Series. The Cubs do – and it would probably cost Addison Russell, the 24-year old shortstop who has yet to fully break out. The Cubs are planning on pursuing Machado this offseason anyways, so why not get him acclimated to the team now? If anything, it gives you an advantage when having discussions with Machado in the offseason. They can win a World Series with him, and then pay him in the offseason after he falls in love with the organization. GRADE: B
Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager’s injury has put the Dodgers’ World Series hopes in jeopardy – there’s a chance that yet another season slips away from Los Angeles. Machado’s availability on the trade market could not come at a better time. He is the perfect replacement – if not upgrade – to Seager at shortstop. The Diamondbacks are keeping things close in the NL West, and they might force the Dodgers to make this kind of move. Unfortunately, trading away top prospect Alex Verdugo has a feel of frenzied desperation to it. I don’t really see the Dodgers being in the Machado sweepstakes after this season, because they have to worry about resigning Clayton Kershaw. Los Angeles is in a very unenviable position right now. They owe it to their fanbase to maximize these contending years, but a 2-month rental carries incredible risk. If the Dodgers get Machado and lose again, it will make the defeat even more devastating. Orioles minor league scouts have reportedly been looking at the Dodgers farm system, so expect L.A. to be another one of the favorites to land Machado. GRADE: A-
New York Yankees: A player of Manny Machado’s caliber available? It would be foolish not to at least mention the Yankees here. This offseason they are expected to be in the Harper and Machado sweepstakes anyway, so why not bolster the lineup for a title run this year? It would cost probably some combination of Clint Frazier, Jordan Montgomery, and/or Chance Adams (New York’s #2 pitching prospect). Similar to the Cubs, the Yankees would have an advantage in resigning Machado if they can get him in pinstripes this season. With Gary Sanchez out for a substantial amount of time with a groin injury, who says the Yankees lineup couldn’t use Manny? He would probably have to man third base over Miguel Andujar, despite voicing his preference to be a long-term shortstop. The major roadblock holding the Yankees back is the looming free agency of Bryce Harper, and the expensive price tag that he will command. Also, those blue-chip prospects in New York’s farm system might be needed to acquire some better pitching down the road. GRADE: B+
Cleveland Indians: The Indians seem to have fallen by the wayside of the AL elite teams. In order to keep up with the Yankees, Astros, and Red Sox, a Manny-Machado-to-Cleveland trade might be necessary. The versatile Jose Ramirez would move over to the right side of the infield, send Kipnis to the bench, and Machado would be slotted in at third. An infield of Machado, Lindor, Ramirez, and Encarnacion? Oh baby, no more sleeping on the Indians. A package headlined by top prospect Francisco Mejia would probably be able to compete with the other Machado bidders. This is a perfect fit, in my opinion. A mid-market team with three low-cost superstars needs to take advantage of this wide-open championship window. Machado’s presence in that lineup, a Corey Kluber-led rotation, and a lockdown bullpen will be able to hold their own against any other team in baseball. Cleveland’s front office needs to make this happen; worry about money and future later. GRADE: A+
