Will’s Starting 9: 3 Breakouts, 3 Busts, 3 Sleepers

April 4, 2017 Off By tailgatesports

Watch all 9 of these guys for different reasons. This is mostly a fantasy geared article, but I see these players as big factors for their teams as we hit Opening Day. They’re the X Factors, and that’s why they’re on my Starting 9.

Breakouts

This section is often dominated this season with the likes of Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi, but I will expose some of my other breakout picks this season. Definitely check out Matt’s Bregman and Cam’s Benny article (attached at the bottom of this post) for some love on the other two.

Kyle Schwarber (OF/Catcher, Chicago Cubs)

Schwarby was out for pretty much all of last season with an ACL tear, until he resurfaced in the World Series. He didn’t hit a long ball, but hit .412 with some timely hits. The recovery assured me he’s back, hitting whoever the Indians had to offer, whether it be Andrew Miller or Corey Kluber. “Hulk” could mash 30 plus homers and hit for an over .350 OBP this year, and he probably will play enough in your fantasy league to earn catching eligibility. If he does, you could really only make a case for Posey, Lucroy, or Gary Sanchez to be better. Go back and watch him from 2015, where he hit 16 homers in 232 AB, and then hit 5 homers in the 2015 playoffs. You should be able to get him at a good round, and remains a good value for a third outfielder in a points league, with number 1 outfield upside. If you’ve already drafted, see if this guy is available for cheap on the trade market before he makes you regret it.

James Paxton (SP, Seattle Mariners)

I remember watching this guy’s highlights on baseball tonight during his rookie year in 2013, and he looked so promising. He had 10 K’s against the Royals during that highlight, and from those highlights, I knew his ceiling would be crazy. He couldn’t secure a spot in either 2014 or 2015, but finally showcased again why he could be a stud in the making. Last year, against the AL Champion Indians, he punched out 10, hitting 100 on the radar gun three times. Over the course of the year, he got better with command, which had always been his one flaw that held him back throughout his career. His best pitch might not even be that blazing fastball. Robinson Cano explains that his curve remains “one of the nastiest breaking balls I have ever seen.” Buy in on a hard throwing lefty with a dirty breaking ball, get him low or trade for him while you still have the chance.

Lance McCullers (SP, Houston Astros )

McCullers was sidelined in July with an elbow sprain, usually a case where I advise to not go after the guy, but McCullers is just bottomline too good on a too stacked team for me to do so. It is very possible that he could tear his elbow ligament this year, but McCullers is not going top of your drafts. He also could be a perceived auxiliary piece in a trade that ends up being a steal. If you watch his curveball, he makes hitters look helpless. He gets a whiff on 23.2 percent of his curves, good for second in the MLB behind Jose Fernandez (RIP). His K/9 ended up at 11.78, and he had 4 double digit strikeout games. Draft or trade for with confidence.

Busts

Brian Dozier (2B, Minnesota Twins)

Ok, Ok, I get what you are thinking. Dozier is a proven power hitter, and it is not like I am saying he falls off the surface of the planet. Looking at his stats, however, he remains so dependent on the big fly. Before this year’s .268 average, Dozier’s career high was .244, and he has consistently hovered around .230-.240 for his career. He has always walked a good amount, but at the same he strikes out a ton (minus points in some points leagues). Expect regression in his average and his power as well. With an average home run distance of only 396 feet, a lot of Dozier’s homers could land short this season. I am happy with him in points leagues as my 2nd basemen, just weary of taking him too high. I would definitely sell high on Dozier as a trade piece if you see any holes in your lineup.

Chris Davis (1B, Baltimore Orioles)

1st Base isn’t as dominant as it once was, but there are still very good options up and down the board. There are 13 options I would be comfortable starting in my lineup, and I believe Davis is lower on that list than most would think. He has that slow wind up swing, and when he turns on one and times it right, he can croak pitches, but I get frustrated with that average and his literal 1,000 strikeouts over the past five years. Especially in leagues with strikeout penalty, I am staying away. No longer in the MLB is 35-40 homers that rare. Not that it is not impressive, but you can get Carlos Santana a little later, the leadoff guy for a loaded lineup in Cleveland. Santana finished batting .282 in his final 100 games and is a walks and homers machine. Hanley Ramirez will probably hit 30 homers and bat .270-.280, with more RBIs than Davis. During 2016, Chris Davis was ailed with thumb discomfort, similar to how he was plagued in 2014 with injuries, then soured back to a big year in 2015. If this is the case I will be wrong, but I would rather be safe than sorry at such a premium position. If you like him over other players on the board, or can buy low on him in the trade market, could serve as a low risk utility with potential high payoffs, just do not rely on him as a star in your lineup.

Masahiro Tanaka (SP, New York Yankees)

If you watched Tanaka yesterday on Opening Day, you saw him struggle against a mediocre at best Rays lineup. He tweeted after that he had a mechanical issue, and Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild explained “It starts with the fastball and he was just out of whack. It wasn’t noticeable delivery wise, but he pulled some balls and overthrew a few pitches and just couldn’t find a rhythm.” If he can’t locate his fastball, Tanaka then loses the ability of his best pitch, a usually deadly splitter. He had to leave it up a bit to get strikes over, leading to homers from the Rays. Tanaka did have a great Spring Training, allowing one run in 23 and 2/3 innings, but him not locating his fastball, and even his splitter not fooling people scares me. Normally Tanaka exacts a .175 average on the latter pitch, and the Yankees will face far more potent lineups in this division even. His injury history scares me too, bringing me back to 2014 when he was revealed to have a small tear in his elbow, and even though he has been fine, that remains something to consider as well. Then throw in him being on a not that great team, I see regression from Tanaka.

Sleepers

Mitch Haniger (RF, Seattle Mariners)

Let’s start the sleeper section with a deep, deep sleeper. Haniger destroyed Spring Training (.395 BA, .439 OBP, 2 homers, 11 RBIs) and not that that has ever been a crystal clear indicator of regular season success, but he was a guy I had been following with interest entering those exhibitions. In Triple A last season he absolutely raked, hitting .341 with 20 homers and 64 RBI’s, plus with a great walk rate of 12.5 %. Although he did struggle in the majors, his BABIP (Batting average of balls in play) (only .256) and hard contact rate (37.3%) indicates a bit of bad luck. He finished only batting .229 with 5 homers, and was traded along with Jean Segura to Seattle as a large look-over. These five homers, however, averaged 420 feet, and his average exit velocity was in the 95th percentile last year. This hard contact rate (36.4%) is right around where his teammate Nelson Cruz was. He will hit behind Cruz, Cano, and Kyle Seager, so expect many chances for RBIs. You can get this guy so late as most likely he won’t even be drafted in your league. Take a chance on him and go stash him on your bench.

Anthony Rendon (3B, Washington Nationals)

The 2016 Comeback player of the year fell in my draft in an astounding manner. I like this guy’s steady production a lot. He is good in categories, good in points, yet he seems to be a fallback option. He will hit around .270-.280 when healthy, hit 20 round-trippers, and even get you 15 or so stolen bases. In all honesty, outside of Donaldson, Machado, Bryant and Arenado, Rendon could finish 5th in total points. Jonathan Villar hit with a .373 BABIP, so outside of categories, he remains a huge risk. Rendon outperformed Matt Carpenter last year, Alex Bregman has played 49 games and started with a 0.031 average, and Adrian Beltre is 37 years old. Not to mention this lineup with the emergence of Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, and the addition of Adam Eaton should improve his runs and RBI totals.

Edwin Diaz (CP, Seattle Mariners)

I like this Mariners team a lot, showcased with three players on this starting 9. In his rookie year Diaz punched out 88 hitters in 51 and two thirds innings all with a 2.79 ERA. A closer on a team like the Mariners that is not top tier like the Cubs is who you want in this position in fantasy. In a loaded division at the top, the Mariners will win many close games, and Diaz will dazzle in the 9th. Draft with confidence as your closer later than premium options.