Will Robinson Cano’s Return Energize the Mariners?

By Matt Loehle, Senior Baseball Analyst

In what was long assumed to be a foregone conclusion, the AL playoff race has flipped the script and is now poised to give us fans some exciting baseball down the stretch of the regular season. While the Sox and Indians are running away with their respective divisions, the Astros have had a difficult time pulling away from the pesky A’s. Not that I expect the Athletics to take the AL West title away from the defending champs, but they have the potential to push the pennant race much farther than people expected. That leaves us with the Wild Card, whose two spots are suddenly wide open for three teams. The once-untouchable Yankees have proven to be very, very mortal. The upstart, exciting Athletics will have people rooting for their Cinderella-story season. And the Mariners, well, they’re the team on the cusp on contention – a spot that seems like they can’t escape from. The 2018 Mariners have shown flashes of excellence, with stretches of good-enough pitching and elite closing to help them go on winning stretches. The return of Robinson Cano from his 80-game suspension adds a new dimension to this team, one that makes them a more dangerous offensive group. The major question now is whether or not his return can propel the Mariners past the red-hot Athletics (or dare I say it, Yankees) into the playoffs.

Oddly enough, the Mariners winning percentage has been an identical .575 with or without Cano in the lineup this season. Their stretch without Cano has been somewhat of a roller coaster, however, as they took off on a tear for a while, then recently have been slipping. James Paxton is currently on the DL with a forearm contusion – not very serious, but something to monitor considering Paxton is the lifeblood of this franchise. The main reason why the Mariners have fallen back in the Wild Card race is because of their pitching. “Good enough” starting pitching was able to string together wins back in June. As the race heats up, however, the rotation needs to churn out better performances. Felix Hernandez (5.62 ERA) has been horrible. Marco Gonzalez has given up 15 runs in his past three outings. Aside from Big Maple, the pitching staff hasn’t won the Mariners any games. They’ve been putting pressure on the offense to score 5 or 6 runs a game. It doesn’t help that Seattle is below the league average in runs scored per game, coming in at 4.19.

 (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

So, does Robinson Cano come in and fix all this? As you finish reading this piece, you’ll find that the answer is yes and no. While he does give the Mariners an elite bat in the middle of their lineup, he is nothing more than a band-aid. The offense is not, and never really has been, a worry for Seattle. Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura all should see an increase in production with the addition of Cano to the lineup. The root cause of the Mariner’s struggles has been the rotation. In the playoffs, elite offense can be stifled by elite pitching. I am a Red Sox fan, and for all the fanfare being given to the offense this season, I know deep down that this team is going to ride or die with its rotation. The Mariners, with an even worse rotation, are in a similar spot. I would hate the idea of having Marco Gonzalez and Mike Leake starting playoff games for my team.

For the remainder of the season, I expect the Mariners to overtake the Athletics and nab the 2^nd Wild Card spot. The rotations are comparable, the bullpens are comparable, but Seattle has a way superior offense. In the regular season, that’s what will win games. Robinson Cano’s return should solidify this. That leads them to a 1-game playoff series, in which the Mariners pull off an upset over the Yankees behind an incredible James Paxton start. After that, the subpar rotation (now leading off with Mike Leake, since Paxton is coming off a start) will come back to bite them. Mariners will be lucky to win a single game in the ALDS before getting bounced, and analysts will argue whether or not to call the season a success for the franchise.

That’s the Mariners season for you, all laid out. Robbie Cano will help lead the Mariners to the playoffs, but no further.