Why Dak Prescott is the Next Tom Brady

There’s no escaping the fact that the Cowboys are an elite team in the NFL based on their play in the regular season. With a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they’re also in excellent shape to make a deep run, potentially for the Lombardi Trophy, in the postseason. Obviously there’s a ton of reasons for that, but there’s a few super common excuses people (especially the media) use to explain the Cowboys’ success this season. When praising the offense, the offensive line often gets the highest acclaim- and for good reason, I might add. They are ranked first in pass AND run blocking by Pro Football Focus, and took home the number 1 offensive line ranking for the second year in a row. After (or in some cases before) the offensive line, star running back Ezekiel Elliott gets the glory over fellow star rookie Dak Prescott. Elliott’s absurd numbers tell it all, and he is right to belong in MVP consideration. He’s rushed for over 100 yards per game and more touchdowns than anyone not named Legarrette Blount. Now, this is not to say that Prescott isn’t getting any love, as he has certainly earned respect around the league, but given his numbers and the season he’s had, something just seemed off to me about his lack of recognition. He has taken extreme care of the football (only 4 Int) and has proven that he has the ability to win close games down the stretch, as he’s led 5 4th quarter comebacks this year! Assuming I was missing something huge here, I dissected the statistics and team compositions of the undisputed GOAT, Tom Brady, and I have to say that I was astounded by what I found.

First of all, in order to give a fair comparison here, we can only use statistics from the first seasons of Dak and Tom, considering Prescott has only played one full season in the NFL. Another thing I want to make clear is that I do not make this comparison lightly. I have the utmost respect for what Tom Brady has accomplished over the course of his illustrious NFL career and, opinions aside, winning 4 Super Bowls and never missing the playoffs once in 16 full seasons pretty much solidifies his spot atop (or very close to) the quarterback food chain. We’ll get into the dissection of his stats later on.

Dak Prescott has certainly had an outstanding season in place of the injured Tony Romo. He wasn’t just a solid backup; he had one of the best seasons for a rookie quarterback in NFL history, and completely earned the job once Romo was fully healthy. Obviously having the ability to win games as a quarterback is crucial, and Prescott has shown that he has it in spades, winning 13 of the 15 games he completed. As mentioned before, Dak was relied upon to come back from a deficit to win 5 of those games. Now while that’s unquestionably impressive, that isn’t totally why I’m convinced he’s a surefire stud.

Prescott set rookie NFL records for touchdown to interception ratio at 23:4 as well as most pass attempts before throwing an interception with an astounding 176 throws, a record previously held by none other than Tom Brady. What this displays is just how well he has protected the football, something extremely difficult in the NFL regardless of the fact that he is just a first year player. Additionally, he completed nearly 68% of his passes, good for 4th in the league this season, one spot ahead of… Tom Brady. So Dak Prescott is more accurate than the winningest quarterback in the game today with 16 less years of experience. That really makes you wonder what Tom was like in his first season at the helm, especially considering he would go on to win the Super Bowl.

First of all, it’s important to note that Tom Brady sat out his entire rookie season as a backup to Drew Bledsoe. Much like Prescott, however, he would replace the respectable veteran starter due to injury, and would never relinquish the position. That season, he finished with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, to go along with a 64% completion percentage, all numbers worse than what Dak Prescott produced this season. It’s also important to mention that Tom wouldn’t have a season with less than 10 interceptions until his 7th year as a starter, although he has accomplished this 4 times in the last 5 seasons. Additionally, he has only thrown less than 5 interceptions once in a full season, as Dak did this year. What may be the most telling statistic regarding each QB’s play in their first seasons is their quarterback rating. Dak finished 3rd among active quarterbacks with a mark of 104.9, behind only Matt Ryan and the league leading 112.2 put up by Brady. While that’s an excellent number for a veteran quarterback, it is even more outstanding for a first year player, and even Tom Brady can account for that. It took him the same 7 seasons to reach a QBR of 100 as well, and he has only beaten Dak’s rookie rating in 4 of his 17 seasons. If that doesn’t put his astounding rookie season in perspective, I don’t know what possibly could.

Now in the end, this fantastic regular season is just that, a regular season. If Prescott really wants to make his mark on the NFL, he’ll have to succeed this postseason, and in the playoffs for years to come, obviously assuming he’s able to keep getting there. Perhaps we’ve got the next Tom Brady or Joe Montana on our hands here. Perhaps we’ve got the next Robert Griffin III. Only time will tell, but it seems to me that Dak Prescott is just far too talented to be a bust at this point. The rookie phenom’s true quarterback prowess will be put to the test following their first round bye this weekend. If you can remember, Tom Brady led 4th quarter comebacks in two of their three postseason games in his first year. I can’t help but wonder if Dak won’t be able to do the same.

Written by Connor Peterson