The Warriors finished off the Rockets Monday night in an entertaining 4-3 series. This sets them up with a Finals matchup with the Cavaliers for a record fourth straight season. Easily the least anticipated matchup of the past four seasons, people may be overlooking the Cavs potential for an upset.

  Golden State is the biggest NBA Finals favorite in at least the past 16 seasons, listed as 10:1 favorites over Cleveland, meaning a 1000 dollar bet on the Warriors would net 100 dollars if they won. So if the Cavaliers can find a way to win the series, it would be looked at as one of the most surprising upsets in sports history, but should everybody really be counting out LeBron and Co. already? Probably, but here are a few ways that they might make the series interesting.

  Cleveland has shown the past three seasons that they can do a good job of limiting Steph Curry and Klay Thompson’s three point opportunities. Curry has been held to under 40% shooting on three-pointers two of the past three Finals, with 2016 being the year he shot 40% and they lost those Finals. Klay has been held to under 40% in two of the past three Finals as well, while also never averaging 20 points. Assuming they can continue to do that for another series, it comes down to slowing the other three Golden State future Hall of Famers. Andre Iguodola has already been ruled out for Game One, making it five games now since he last played. This is the same Iguodola that was awarded Finals MVP in 2015 simply for guarding LeBron James. Recent reports from Chris Haynes of ESPN have stated that Iguodola has received a second opinion on his knee injury and is still trying to figure out what the injury exactly is. This points to Andre having no timetable for a return and if he can’t play for a few games, or even the entire series, that would be a much bigger loss than it appeared against the Rockets. This would cause Kevin Durant to spend much more time guarding LeBron, which could ultimately affect his offense due to fatigue. Slowing down Durant, the Finals MVP in 2017, must be a top priority for Cleveland if they want to win the series. Having him defend LeBron the majority of the game could be exhausting, seeing as how James has averaged over 41 minutes and 34 points per game this postseason. If Durant isn’t the primary defender on LeBron with Iguodola out, then it would have to be Draymond Green. Putting the 2017 Defensive Player of the Year on James might seem obvious, but seeing as how Green has played the majority of his postseason minutes at the center position, this could cause mismatches elsewhere. This would also leave Durant to guard Jeff Green, if Green is a starter Game 1, leading to the next way the Cavs could end up making this a competitive series.

  Another key for the Cavaliers is that Kevin Love needs to play an important role. If Jeff Green isn’t in the starting lineup for Game 1, that would mean that Love has cleared concussion protocol. Now, the Cavaliers have proven they can win without Love, winning back-to-back elimination games in the previous series with him playing a combined 5 minutes, but they have also shown he and LeBron can carry the load when needed. Love can create mismatches on offense with Iguodola out and he could force Steve Kerr to play one of Zaza Pachulia or JaVale McGee. Pachulia hasn’t played a meaningful minute this postseason and McGee hasn’t played any important minutes since starting in the Warriors only loss to the Pelicans. The only issue with playing Love over Green is that Love can be a liability on defense. With the Warriors currently starting Kevon Looney, who is averaging under 5 points per game this postseason, Love could defend him and focus on rebounding and outlet passing. If Iguodola comes back, then Cleveland will have to rely on Green and have their all-star on the bench more often, due to his defensive limitations. No Iguodola would mean more Love for the Cavaliers.

  The last way the Cavaliers could make this series very interesting is that LeBron has been here before. Golden State has been historically dominant during the third quarter this postseason. In the playoffs, they are currently a plus-7.6 in 3rd quarter point differential, more than 3 points greater than the next closest team, the Washington Wizards. This could cause teams to get overwhelmed and lose the game: just look at the Houston Rockets. In Game Seven of the Western Conference Finals, the Rockets were up by 15 in the second quarter, only to set a NBA playoff record by missing 27 consecutive three-pointers. Those consecutive missed shots started near the end of the second quarter, and ended at the beginning of the fourth quarter. I wouldn’t exactly say all 27 misses were by chance. The Rockets simply were overwhelmed in the third quarter, getting outscored 33-15 while the Warriors made 7 of 11 three-pointers. With much of Cleveland’s offense running through LeBron, this shouldn’t happen to them. He has been to eight straight finals and has won three, so there’s not much that can overwhelm him at this point in his career. If LeBron can sense a Warriors third quarter surge and slow the pace down, all while continuing to score at a consistent rate, then Cleveland should be able to limit the Golden State outbursts. He may have to carry his team more than usual during the third, but it could be the difference in winning or losing the series.

  Put all these things together and this series could be closer than anybody expects. Nobody wants an injury to be the reason a team wins a championship, but they affect every team at one point or another. If Iguodola can’t play in the series, Kevin Love can make a positive impact, and LeBron can help his team overcome Golden State’s huge third quarters, then Cleveland has a realistic shot at their second championship. With Iguodola currently having no timetable for a return and Kevin Love potentially returning for Game 1, things are starting to look up for the Cavaliers. Cleveland also happens to have the greatest player in the world on their team.

Cavs in 7

Written by Clifford Buck