Which Team is More Legit: the Colorado Rockies or the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Up to this point in the season, the NL West has been wildly unpredictable. The San Francisco Giants, a 2016 playoff team and favorite to win a Wild Card spot this year, are stuck in the cellar with a record of 10-18 and a lineup full of holes. The Dodgers, who are generally considered a top-5 team in the MLB, find themselves in 3rd place in the division and only 2 games above the .500 mark. So who does that leave as the new top dog in the NL West?

The Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks – two teams that were stuck in mediocrity in 2016 – have emerged as the new powerhouses in the division, and it’s rather refreshing, to say the least. Many of the divisions in baseball have become too predictable; there is a clear echelon of playoff-caliber teams, and non-playoff-caliber teams. The new bloods in the NL West should add some spice and entertainment to the playoff race, and maybe strike some fear in the teams generally considered a lock for a playoff spot. Is it possible that the Rockies and Diamondbacks just got off to a hot start, and a regression back down to .500 is looming in the future? The obvious answer is yes; neither team is without their respective weaknesses. If there is one team that has the capability to sustain their success, however, it is the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The main difference between the two ballclubs is the strength of the rotation. The Rockies have gotten by with some above-average hitting and an elite bullpen (Greg Holland was a fantastic addition). Colorado’s rotation, however, is built on an unsteady foundation. While Jon Gray recovers from his foot fracture, the Rockies are relying on names like Tyler Anderson, Antonio Senzatela, and Tyler Chatwood to provide them with quality starts on the daily. While it has worked – to an extent – thus far, these guys have a very low ceiling. The production that the Rockies are getting from their rotation won’t be sustainable for 135 more games. The Rockies may continue to ride out their success, but after dropping five of their last seven games, regression seems to be approaching fast.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have some high upside pitchers performing up to their potential. Patrick Corbin, a breakout pitcher in 2014, is having his best stretch since returning from Tommy John. He has a 2.29 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 35 innings. Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker have flashed their potential, displaying some double-digit strikeouts in recent starts. Zack Greinke should continue to provide consistent production from the mound, even if his numbers don’t support the label ‘ace’. Losing Shelby Miller for the year hurts, but the D-backs have another young hurler gaining confidence in the bullpen – Archie Bradley. With all of these guys finding themselves over the course of the season, don’t be surprised to see Arizona maintain the same level of success that has put them in 1st place in the NL West.

The offense is putting up some impressive production to back the rotation, which takes pressure off the arms of the relatively young starting pitcher core. Paul Goldschmidt has been his usual all-around stud, hitting for average, power, and running rampant on the basepaths. AJ Pollock, Jake Lamb, Chris Owings, and David Peralta have all contributed in their respective roles. In fact, the entire Diamondbacks’ lineup, from top to bottom, has performed well to kick off the season. The lineup’s youth, diversity of roles, balance of veterans, and pure talent makes me believe that this type of production is sustainable.

The Diamondbacks pose a real threat in the NL West.

Written by Matt Loehle