WGC-HSBC Champions: First Look and Predictions

The first WGC event of the 2017-2018 season is already upon us, as players from all across the world travel to Shanghai to play at the beautiful Sheshan International Golf Club. Big names and familiar faces such as Phil, DJ, Hideki, Adam Scott and Jason Day are all in the field this week. Some are looking to go into the offseason on a high note, while others are looking to get a jump on the season already. The WGC-HSBC has had some exciting finishes in the past, most notably when Bubba Watson holed out from a bunker on the 72nd hole, to force a playoff. He would go on to win, joining a very impressive list of past champions, including himself, Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Sergio García. Many of those names are in the field again this week, and things are shaping up for another exciting tournament. Here are some storylines to be following this week.

Jason Day: Day’s 2017 was anything but successful. Back problems and family troubles plagued the former World no. 1, and he saw players leapfrogging him in the rankings, while dropping to 8th in the OWGR in the process. It took a while for Day to truly get his season started, and by then it was already a lost cause with the JT’s, DJ’s and Matsuyama’s of the Tour racking up a bunch of early victories. However, he is finally starting to get things back on track, collecting 4 top 15 finishes since the PGA Championship. Day hasn’t really been in contention recently, but he is definitely trending in the right direction as of late, so look for another strong showing from him this week. He is most likely looking for some momentum going into the winter, so he can regain his form and bounce back in 2018. Therefore, look for him to come out swinging on Thursday in search of his first win since the 2016 Players.

Dustin Johnson: Going into Augusta, DJ was on such a tear that I was legitimately worried he was going to become the next Tiger Woods. A freak accident on the eve of the Masters changed all that, however, and since that point, DJ has been trying to regain that form. We caught flashes of it during the FedEx Cup playoffs, when he completely overpowered the 18th hole at the Northern Trust to beat Jordan Spieth in a playoff. However, things just haven’t been completely firing on all cylinders for DJ. Spieth was able to close the gap on the World no. 1 substantially, and now even Justin Thomas is catching up. However, with the offseason looming, a fine tuning of DJ’s game seems almost unnecessary. He hasn’t played since the President’s Cup, so look for him to be a bit rusty this week. He won the tournament back in 2013, and I can reasonably see a top-15 finish for him, but with the form he’s in, I don’t think he’ll have a realistic shot at winning by Sunday.

Hideki Matsuyama:  Matsuyama is also looking to regain a bit of his composure this week. He started off 2017 very strong, but has seen a decline in results recently. Most notably, Justin Thomas passed him as the World no. 3 golfer after his victory last week in South Korea. A T-5 finish at the CIMB Classic is promising, but a weakened field in a foreign country takes some of the glam away from such a high finish. Matsuyama’s been in a bit of a mini-slump since his dominant victory at the WGC Bridgestone, so look for him to spend this week trying to break said slump. However, with such a major tournament being so close to home for him, this could spell the perfect opportunity to get things back to where they were. He’s not my first pick for this week, but I just can’t sell him out this week.

Keep an eye on these bigger stories in the coming days. However, with a field of 78 players, there are plenty of other players to be on the lookout for. Therefore, here are my picks for the week.

Winner: Phil Mickelson – I know, I’ve been saying this a lot lately, but Phil just isn’t ready to quit yet. With a Tiger comeback looming, some of Phil’s thunder may have been stolen. However, Phil phanatics were given a jolt when he seriously contended for the first time since probably the Open Championship. It came down to the last couple holes, and a couple of good breaks could realistically have led to Phil’s first victory since 2013. However, after his T3 finish, Phil said that his game is in a very good place, he is refocused on his game, and he sees another victory on the horizon. At a course like Sheshan, where Phil already has two victories, I think he has a very good shot at a victory this week. Of course I’m probably setting him up for failure right now, but his game is in too good of a place right now for him to not be in the conversation on the weekend.

Top-10: Tommy Fleetwood – To some, this may be a bit of an odd pick. He has been relatively hit or miss as of late, recording a T-6, T-25, MC and T-61 in his last 4 starts. However, his playoff push is in full swing as the European Tour’s Race to Dubai comes to a close. Fleetwood currently holds the number one position in the standings, but Sergio García’s victory last week closed that gap substantially. Therefore, look for Fleetwood to be very motivated to have a good performance this week, especially with Sergio sitting this event out. With some success in his previous starts, as well as a $1.25 million paycheck potentially on the line, I think Fleetwood is a pretty sure pick for a top-10 finish.

Top-25: Pat Perez – I’m gonna be honest here, Perez wasn’t on my radar until after he won the CIMB Classic. I wasn’t a huge Perez fan after his comments about Tiger earlier this year, but I’m starting to warm up to him. He’s kind of a new-school John Daly when it comes to his diet and workout regiment (both of these things are non-existent for Perez). Plus, he’s been playing really good golf. Perez just captured his third win on Tour, and his game has been steadily progressing over the past few months. Here’s a fun fact for you: In his last 5 starts, Pat’s lowest finish was 16th, and he recorded 3 top-10’s as well as a victory during that timeframe. It’s kind of a shame that this type of golf didn’t show up earlier in the season, as he missed the cut at the US and British Opens, and had a less than satisfactory finish at the PGA Championship as well. However, Perez is currently on the run of his career, and I think that run will continue this week as well. Honestly, a top-25 finish is about as safe a bet as you can make, and with the way Perez plays, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he brought home win number 4 this week.

Written by Paul Choma