The Philadelphia Phillies – The Next Team to Emerge From the Basement and Take the Baseball World By Storm?

Every sport has teams that are in a rebuilding, or re-tooling process. Phrases such as “strong farm system”, “prospects with potential”, and “a few years away from competing” will be constantly shoved down the throats of the fans. All of it is just the franchise’s way of asking its fanbase to temporarily lower its expectations for the team so they are not caught off guard by a putrid record. Some teams are really bad at rebuilding (Cleveland Browns), some follow a methodical system of rebuilding (Boston Celtics), while still others seemingly avoid a total rebuild (New York Yankees). In baseball, the rebuilding process is a delicate thing. Teams draft players while they are teenagers, plug them into a three-tiered farm system, and generally won’t expect major-league production from them for 3-5 years. During that time, so many things can change. Players drafted in the first round may end up as busts, while a random pitching prospect is electrifying Double-A. Each jump between levels poses new challenges, and that sometimes can ruin a player’s confidence. With all of these variables standing in the way, tanking teams have to be highly disciplined, and frankly, a little lucky as well. Two of the more recent success stories of 180-degree rebuilds are the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros (both of which have been well-documented and posted as models for other teams to follow). So, the natural question is who’s next? What dumpster-fire franchise is going to emerge in the next couple years and become a threat in October?

The Philadelphia Phillies, despite losing nearly 100 games last year, appear to have all the necessary pieces lined up to contend before 2020. Yes, they have been total garbage since 2012, and haven’t won a World Series since 2008, but Philadelphia has a loyal fanbase, and this is not the kind of franchise that will accept decades of mediocrity. It is a big-market sports city and not that far removed from dominating the NL East under the leadership of Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard.

In the 2018 offseason, expect the Phillies to go all-out in pursuit of the top free agents. I believe the Phillies are one of the favorites to sign Bryce Harper to a mega contract – big market team, plenty of money to spend, and needs a superstar to take them to the next level. Other big names, such as Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen, Daniel Murphy, and Dallas Keuchel are sure to attract the attention of the Phillies’ front office. There are plenty of high-end closers entering free agency after next season as well, which will be able to satisfy a position of need for the team. Essentially, next offseason is going to be critical to take the Phillies out of their rebuilding process.

This is not to say that the pieces they have in-house are not rising superstars themselves. In fact, most rebuilding teams would love to have the Phillies roster at the current time. The front 3 starters of this Phillies franchise – Aaron Nola, Jared Eickhoff, and Vince Velasquez – are all extremely talented young pitchers who have already experienced success in the majors. Nola, in particular, is the closest to being that front-end ace for the Phillies. He posted a 3.54 ERA and 184 strikeouts across 168 innings in 2017, which are more than respectable numbers for a 24-year-old. Philadelphia certainly needs to look elsewhere for an arm or two, since there are a lot of question marks behind Velasquez. Prospect Franklyn Kilome has a huge frame and incredible pure talent, but he is still very raw and cannot be counted on as a front-end starter for at least a handful of years. The Phillies’ lineup, meanwhile, has taken leaps and bounds over the past couple years. Most eyes will be on top prospect JP Crawford next season, who has been exposed to the big leagues but has yet to display his talents. He has been a top-10 prospect in baseball the past couple years, so the talent is undeniable, it’s just a matter of translating it to the majors. In the outfield, Odubel Herrera (.281, 14HR) and Aaron Altherr (.272, 19HR) have developed into dependable everyday starters and should continue to improve their game. Meanwhile, Rhys Hoskins might be that power bat in the lineup for years to come. As just the 12^th best prospect in the Phillies system, Hoskins stormed into the majors with 18 homers in just 50 games (well over 35 home run-pace for the year). Pair him 3 and 4 in the lineup with Bryce Harper and just sit back and watch. Third-baseman Maikel Franco took a step back last year, but let’s not overreact to a 25-year-old hitting .230 with 24 home runs. He is still young, has immense talent, and could easily rebound in 2018. The Phillies also seem to have their catcher of the future in Jorge Alfaro, a top prospect who hit .318 in a short first stint in the majors last year. Add him into the group of guys expected to take a collective step forward next year, and the Phillies have a legitimately dangerous lineup in the making.

The Cubs, Astros, and Phillies rebuilding process all have the necessary things in common.

• Good, patient ownership.
• A talented farm system that has experienced success in the majors.
• A big market sports city (more Chicago than Houston).
• Beginning to sign veteran role players. Philadelphia just signed Carlos Santana this offseason.

The next step for the Phillies is to address their positions of need. They should be looking for an ace, either by free agency or trade. Trading for someone like Chris Archer would fit into their rotation perfectly; taking the lead role for the franchise for years to come. In the 2018 offseason, signing a few solid bullpen guys – including a closer – should be a priority. And obviously, go get that superstar. Whether it is Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, the Phillies need to be aggressive if they want to make the jump to being a contender. They have guys that could become the face of the franchise, but someone like Harper could assume that mantle immediately.

The 2017 season was rock bottom for the Phillies. They can only improve from here – but that improvement will be much quicker than people expect, I can almost guarantee it. The 2018 season should be about getting above .500, then 2019 should be about competing for a playoff spot. 2020 is when I expect this Phillies team to really make some noise in the playoffs and be a legitimate World Series threat.

Written by Matt Loehle