Red Sox – Yankees: Who is better?
May 11, 2018
Round two of the rivalry is in the books, and man, it was an entertaining series. Not in the sense of fighting and drama that defined the first meeting between these teams, but rather it was some high-intensity baseball. I was getting drained emotionally just watching it; each pitch was so deliberate, the crowd was rocking, and it had the overall feel of a playoff series. Let’s face it – with identical records (the best in baseball, I might add), the Sox and Yanks head to head series may determine the AL East champ. The one that falls behind will likely end up being a 96-win Wild Card team, and nobody wants anything to do with that single Wild Card game. With the Yankees winning two of the three games in New York, the matchup record is now knotted at 3. New York came in with an absurd amount of momentum, riding a stretch of games similar to the Red Sox torrid 17-1 stretch earlier in the season. The Sox have cooled off considerably but are still head and shoulders better than most teams in baseball, with the exception of Houston, Cleveland, and Arizona. And the Yankees, of course, which brings me to my next point: who is better at this point in the season? Winning streaks tend to make people gloss over weaknesses – it happened with the Red Sox, too. So which team is better equipped to beat the other when it counts, and what are the weaknesses for these two squads?
On the Red Sox side of things, it is impossible to look past a glaring weakness: the 7th and 8th inning bullpen guys. Craig Kimbrel, although he badly blew a save in the second game, does not worry me. He was put into a really difficult situation in that game, and mistakes do happen. I trust that in future matchups Kimbrel will be his usual lockdown self in the 9th inning. The setup men – Joe Kelly, Carson Smith, Matt Barnes, and Heath Hembree – all are very untrustworthy in big moments against this Yankees team that has demonstrated the ability to strike back late in games. Walks and erratic pitches have been killer. You can’t allow the Yankees to get extra base runners, especially when guys like Judge and Stanton can rip RBI doubles at will. I don’t know the right answer to this bullpen problem; maybe Tyler Thornburg, Bobby Poyner, or someone outside the organization? Regardless, it’s a problem that needs to be solved. New York’s bullpen is its strength (usually).
The starting rotations is a clear advantage Red Sox. The Yankees have some serious question marks in their rotation, which have been unjustly stifled recently due to their win streak. But let it be known: it is a weakness on this team. The Sox looked like they finally got CC Sabathia’s number. Tanaka did not look sharp, giving up 4 runs to the Sox in 5 innings. Severino had an excellent start against Boston this past meeting, but the first time around he got knocked around. Sonny Gray has a 6.00 ERA. The Red Sox have shown that they can hit all of the Yankees’ starters, but not necessarily vice versa. E-Rod, Sale, and Pomeranz all have great outings versus New York on their resumes. Porcello has 1 great outing and 1 bad outing. Essentially, innings 1 through 5 are advantage Boston, and 6 through 8 are advantage New York. Kimbrel vs Chapman is a toss-up.
As far as the lineups are concerned, both are pretty formidable when stacked up against your average Joe Shmo MLB team. The Yankees filled one of the gaps in their lineup with Gleybar Torres, but still have more holes than the Red Sox do. Hicks, Austin, and Walker are the soft spot in that lineup. Stanton is still only hitting .238 (breaking news, he isn’t going to hit over .275 ever), and Gary Sanchez is hitting a paltry .209. As soon as the Red Sox replace that piece of trash hitter Jackie Bradley with Mitch Moreland full time, I would like to say that Boston has the offensive advantage as well. JD Martinez is vastly outperforming Giancarlo Stanton, and Mookie Betts is putting forward a strong case for best player in all of baseball. Simply put, the Sox have the best player in the matchup (Betts) and a better top-to-bottom lineup than the Yankees do.
The one thing that could hold the Sox back is the clubhouse. With this news of David Price and his excessive video gaming… I’m starting to worry that this could turn into a major distraction. Clubhouse problems are very real, and they can kill a team (see: Red Sox, 2017). This Price issue could spark some negative coverage of the team, and I don’t know if these guys are mentally tough enough to handle it all summer. I hope I am wrong and this is an isolated incident, but this team’s season last year ended because they were a dejected group. Hopefully Cora can extinguish this and restore good vibes before things get out of hand. The Yankees seem pretty intrinsically driven, and just hard-nosed ballplayers. No drama = advantage New York.
Overall, I believe the Red Sox are better suited to come out on top in the long run. With a better rotation and a better lineup, Boston should be able to beat New York in a series that Chris Sale pitches, and the games are split home/away. Yes, the bullpen is shaky. But it cannot really get much worse than this past series. If anything, it just drew more attention to that issue for Dombrowski. The media is in a frenzy right now about the Yankees and their recent winning stretch, but that team does have holes. If they don’t fix them by October, the Sox will beat them in an epic ALCS showdown.
