Nolan Arenado is Going to Win MVP and There is Nothing Anyone Can Do About It
June 21, 2017
Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, and Charlie Blackmon are among the tops names vying for this years NL MVP award, but in all honesty, they are currently at the mercy of Nolan Arenado. Arenado is not merely bursting onto the scene this season, but his walk-off home run to complete the cycle has garnered him deserved national recognition. After a disappointing performance in the World Baseball Classic, the free swinging third baseman has responded, combining with Charlie Blackmon and a young pitching staff to lead the Colorado Rockies to a first place spot in the NL West. Arenado is arguably the best two way player in the game right now, and he is on his way to his fifth gold glove award, which would make him the only player in MLB history to begin his career with five consecutive gold gloves. Stats are definitely a solid indication of who is most valuable, but don’t always tell the whole story, but here are the lines of those in contention:
Clayton Kershaw: 10-2/2.61 ERA/.93 WHIP
Max Scherzer: 8-4/2.26 ERA/.84 WHIP
Ryan Zimmerman: (.346/19/54)
Bryce Harper: (.316/18/53)
Joey Votto: (.310/18/52)
Charlie Blackmon: (.328/15/54)
Nolan Arenado: (.299/15/55)
Paul Goldschmidt: (.324/16/57)
On the surface it seems like Arenado’s statistics could get lost amongst these other high caliber seasons, but there are a few signs pointing in his favor going forward. Here is a list of three key reasons he will win the MVP award:
Trajectory of Emphasis on Batting Average:
Arenado has had an upward trajectory in terms MVP voting going from 8th in his 2015 Season (.287/42/130) to a 5th place finish in 2016 (.294/41/133), and one of the main categories correlated to this MVP position is his improvement in hitting from a stats perspective could be because of his improved batting average. He has his improved his batting average every season in the majors except for 2015 when he tied his 2014 mark, and this year he is poised to eclipse .300 for the first time in his career. However, while Arenado barely cracks the top 30 this season in average, the latest MVP results reflect that this should not be costly to his case. While .300 might seem an essential benchmark, only 4 players in the whole league have won an MVP award with an average below the benchmark, (Jimmy Rollins 2007, Mike Trout 2014, Josh Donaldson 2015, Kris Bryant 2016). With three consecutive years of players below .300 winning, it is clear that in the modern era of baseball batting average has been undermined. This bodes well for Arenado who is unlikely to catch up with the likes of Zimmerman or Goldschmidt in hitting even if he does eclipse .300.
The Importance of a Successful Team:
The Rockies continue to roll and have shown no signs of slowing down, despite the intense competition within their division. At this point in the season with the slim lead they possess and the bats they have displayed they have a very realistic chance of capturing their first division title in team history. The Rockies winning a division title would exponentially help Arenado claim the MVP Award. Since 2009, only 1 MVP winner from the NL (Bryce Harper 2015) was on a team that missed the playoffs, which hurts Joey Votto’s chances positioned on a mediocre Reds club. Furthermore, 6 out of the 8 winners since 2009 were on division winners, the exceptions being Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen. So while fate is far from sealed this season, the past two years have seen Arenado’s performances get lost amongst Colorado’s pathetic team results; this year is a different story altogether, and if the Rockies claim the division for the first time it would go a long way in bolstering Arenado’s case at least to surpass division rivals such as Goldschmidt and Kershaw.
A Second Half Performer:
This season, Arenado has been extremely good, verging on great. Last season he had a poor first half and managed to turn it around, posting an incredible second half of the season in which he batted nearly 100 points higher than in the first half. If he manages to have a similar second half to last year in combination with strong first half he is already putting together the whole league better watch out. Moments like Sunday’s walk-off cycle are the picturesque moments that voters remember at the end of a season, to look back on and recognize a player’s direct value to their team. Arenado is only getting started with his myriad of brilliant performances on the diamond this season.
Next-Up Nolan is showing why he is no longer the future of greatness, but the present.
Written by Paul McGovern
