MVP Series: One Player from Each NFC Team Who Could Win MVP

Series By Ryan Scimone

 

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys: RB Ezekiel Elliott

I was tempted to list Dak Prescott here, but given his lack of offensive weapons, it’s pretty clear that the Cowboys would rather run the offense through Ezekiel Elliott. And who can blame them? Back in 2016, Zeke ran for 1631 yards and 15 TDs, leading the Cowboys to, an NFC best, 13-3 record. With Elliott serving a 6-game suspension last season, Dallas dropped to 9-7 overall and 3-3 in games without him. Now with his suspension served and no other off the field issues(yet) to distract him, Zeke should resemble the MVP candidate he was just two years ago. If Dak can keep opposing defenses honest, 2000 rushing yards is by no means out of reach for this dynamic running back.

 

New York Giants: RB Saquon Barkley

On a team with Odell Beckham Jr. and Eli Manning, a two time Super Bowl MVP, some might say it’s crazy for me to pick a guy who has yet to play a down in the NFL as their most probable MVP candidate. But hear me out, I believe OBJ is the Giants’ most valuable player, but a wide receiver has never won MVP. Who knows what type of numbers he would need to put up in order to have a legitimate shot at winning the award. Also, let’s not forget that the Giants’ offense is full of talent this season. Between OBJ, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley, it might be difficult to feed OBJ with the targets he would need to reach historical numbers. That brings us to Barkley and his chances of winning the award in his rookie year. Historically, running backs have had some of the easiest transitions from college to pros. Just last year, we saw Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt stake a claim as the NFL’s best back, and none of those guys had the pedigree of Barkley. What makes Saquon special is his ability to excel in all facets of the game. He has the power of Adrian Peterson, the elusiveness of Le’veon Bell, the pass catching ability of Alvin Kamara, and the route running of a typical slot receiver. There does not appear to be any definitive weakness in his game and that’s why scouts and analysts alike have labeled Barkley as the “greatest running back prospect since Adrian Peterson”(Todd McShay). In only nine starts and 14 total games, AP’s rookie numbers were still spectacular. He rushed for 1341 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. If Barkley’s talent truly rivals that of AP’s then he should be able to match these rushing totals if he starts every game this season. However, the couple things Barkley already does better than AP ever could is run routes and catch passes. If he can come close to what Kamara achieved a season ago, his stats could look something like this: 1340 rushing yards, 12 TDs, 70 catches, 700 yards. Tie that in with a playoff berth and Barkley’s name will most definitely be in the discussion for the league’s MVP.

 

Philadelphia Eagles: QB Carson Wentz

After a very up and down rookie season, Carson Wentz broke out in a huge way in 2017. In just 13 games he more than doubled his TDs and cut his INTs in half, finishing with 33 TDs to just 7 INTs. He led the Eagles to a massive turnaround season, claiming the top seed in the NFC with a 13-3 record. If not for tearing an ACL in Week 14, Wentz most likely would have been the frontrunner for the league’s MVP last season. He is, however, expected to make a full recovery by the season opener and start Week 1 for the defending Super Bowl champs. I do not expect Wentz to be able to maintain his ridiculous 7.5 TD% from a year ago, but that does not mean he won’t be in the running for MVP. As long as he stays healthy, he should be a perennial MVP candidate for the next decade or so.

 

Washington Redskins: QB Alex Smith

Just two years ago, the thought of Alex Smith as an MVP candidate was a complete joke. As a prototypical game manager, his biggest statistical season was back in 2013 when he threw for 3313 yards, 23 TDs, and 7 INTs. That’s a decent year for most QBs, but nothing close to MVP caliber. However, whether it be due to the presence of Patrick Mahomes or Andy Reid’s new look playbook, Alex Smith posted career highs in almost every passing category last season. The ultra-conservative, check down machine we became accustomed to seeing was suddenly dropping deep ball dimes to the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Was this just an outlier season from the 33-year old QB or was Andy Reid’s system keeping him from reaching his true potential? We won’t know for sure until we see Smith under center with his new squad in Week 1, but if he resembles the player he was just last year we may have yet to see his best. For a large portion of the season, he was leading the MVP race and looked the part of a star QB in the NFL. That Alex Smith is capable of carrying this Redskins team to playoffs and if that should happen, do not be surprised to hear Smith name in MVP conversations.

 

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears: RB Jordan Howard

I’m just going to preface this by stating that I’ve never been a Mitch Trubisky fan. I was stunned when the Bears reached up and grabbed him with the number two overall pick back in 2017 over the likes of Deshaun Watson. He threw just 7 TDs to 7 INTs as a rookie and failed to show me any real growth as the season went on. That being said, it made my decision to pick Jordan Howard as the Bear’s best bet to win MVP rather easy. Howard is one of the few downhill running, bellcow backs in the NFL today. As a rookie he rushed for 1313 yards and 6 TDs on 5.2 yards per carry while starting just 13 games that season. However, his production took a bit of a hit last year, when the Bears failed to establish any sort of passing game behind the arm of Trubisky and a myriad of no name receivers. Howard has got the talent to lead the NFL in rushing yards, but he’ll need the Bear’s offense to take a huge leap this season if he wants to approach 20 TDs and have a shot at the Playoffs. If both those things don’t happen he’s got no chance at winning MVP.

 

Detroit Lions: QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford is one of the league’s more underrated quarterbacks. The Detroit Lions were literally the worst team in NFL history(0-16) before they drafted Stafford first overall in the 2009 draft. Since then, he has led to the team to three playoff appearances despite limited support on both sides of the ball. Throughout Stafford’s nine year career, the Lions’ defense has finished in the top 15 in points allowed per game just twice. He has also never been paired with even a semblance of a running game. During Stafford’s tenure, Detroit has finished in the bottom 30 in rushing yards per game three times. They have also failed to crack the top 15 in the same category in seven of his nine seasons. Despite this obvious lack of help, Stafford has posted big numbers every year. His most gaudy statistical season came back in 2011, when he willed the Lions to the playoffs behind 5038 yards, 41 TDs, and a 64% completion rate. In recent years, Staffords TDs have diminished, but his INTs have just about been cut in half. For him to win MVP, it will take a combination of increased offensive firepower along with a more consistent defensive effort from his supporting cast. With rookie running back, Kerryon Johnson, set to take over as the lead back in Jim Bob Cooter’s offense and with the return of DE Ziggy Ansah, the Lions have a chance to provide Stafford with the back-up he needs to post a career year. 5000 yards, 40 TDs, and 11 INTs are by no means out of his grasp in 2018.

 

Green Bay Packers: QB Aaron Rodgers

I don’t think I need to tell you that Aaron Rodgers may be the best quarterback in the league right now. Year in and year out, he is constantly amongst the favorites to win the NFL’s MVP award. As long as he plays 16 games, you can mark him down for at least 4000 yards, 30+ TDs, and just 6-8 INTs. The only concern here is that Rodgers is coming off a broken collarbone, which sidelined him for nine games last season. Ordinarily a broken collarbone is nothing to worry about, as the vast majority of professional athletes who sustain this injury make a complete recovery in just a couple months. However, breaking a fragile bone like the collarbone can make you more susceptible to damage it again in the future. Rodgers has already broken his twice. Could this become an issue as he starts to get older? Perhaps. But nevertheless, as long as he stays healthy there is absolutely no reason to believe Rodgers won’t receive MVP votes at the season’s end.

 

Minnesota Vikings: QB Kirk Cousins

The Vikings went all in this offseason when they lured Cousins away from Washington with a, fully guaranteed, $84 million contract. I personally do not believe Cousins has what it takes to lead Minnesota to a Super Bowl, but with a roster as stacked as this one he has no excuse not too. On offense, Cousins has two receivers more than capable of putting up over 1000 yards, in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Not to mention, one of the most reliable pass catching TEs in the league, Kyle Rudolph, and former first round pick, Laquon Treadwell. The Vikings will also get back the services of dynamic second year running back, Dalvin Cook, who tore his ACL just four games into his promising rookie season. With the NFL’s number one defense and all of these weapons at his disposal, it is fair to expect Cousins to post career highs in just about every passing category this year. But would a career year be enough to give Cousins a realistic shot at winning the MVP in 2018? Well, back in 2015 Cousins threw for 4166 yards, 29 TDs and 11 INTs. That same year he hit career highs in QBR(71.7) and passer rating(101.6). To give you an idea of just how impressive these numbers were, his passer rating ranked fifth in the NFL that season, behind only Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, and Tom Brady. It was higher than the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Cam Newton(who won MVP that season). This, however, just gives you a taste of Cousins ceiling. If we compare his career highs in each passing category to the 2017 MVP season of Tom Brady, the stats are staggeringly similar. Cousins: 4917 yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs, 69.8% completion, 101.6 rating. Brady: 4577 yards, 32 TDs, 8 INTs, 66.3% completion, 102.8 rating. Once again, this is easily the most talented team Cousins has played on, a career year could most definitely result in an MVP.

 

NFC SOUTH

 

Carolina Panthers: QB Cam Newton

Since entering the NFL seven years ago, no player has been as polarizing as Cam Newton. He followed up his ridiculous 2015 MVP season(3837 passing yards, 636 rushing yards, 45 total TDs, 10 INTs, 99.4 rating, 15-1 record) with the worst year of his young career(3509 passing yards, 359 rushing yards, 24 total TDs, 14 INTs, 75.8 rating, 6-8 record). From the very first game of that season, Cam looked timid, uninterested, and just straight up rattled by his Super Bowl 50 defeat. This year, however, Cam deserves to be recognized as a legitimate preseason MVP candidate. The Panthers went out and hired Norv Turner as their new OC(he coached Sam Bradford to a career year in 2016), get TE Greg Olsen back from injury, spent their first round pick on Maryland WR DJ Moore, added a deep threat in Torrey Smith, and should have a nice one-two punch at RB with Christian McCaffrey and CJ Anderson in the backfield. These offseason moves give Cam plenty of talent around him to produce at an elite level once again. It’s all their for him, and if he wants to be considered an elite NFL QB, he’ll go out and produce this year.

 

New Orleans Saints: RB Alvin Kamara

One of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season was the immediate emergence of third round rookie, Alvin Kamara. Kamara started the offseason as the Saints third running back on the depth chart, behind the talented Mark Ingram and, future Hall of Famer, Adrian Peterson. Nevertheless, it took just three weeks into the season for Sean Payton to realize Kamara was the teams most dynamic player. After that, AP took a back seat to the rookie and saw his playing time slowly twindle into nothing. Kamara had usurped one of the NFL’s greatest rushers of all time and had become the Saints focal point on offense in the process. The thunder and lightning combination of the powerful, Mark Ingram and elusive, Alvin Kamara just about carried New Orleans back to the Super Bowl. It took a Hail Mary heave from Case Keenum and a missed tackle by Marcus Williams to knock them out of the playoffs. Nevertheless, Kamara’s season was ridiculously impressive and he was awarded Offensive Rookie of the Year for his performance. In 16 games, he rushed for 728 yards at 6.1 yards per carry and looked the part of the league’s best pass catching back going for 81 receptions for 826 yards and 5 TDs. Keep in mind, Mark Ingram also had a productive season rushing for 1124 yards and 12 TDs, as well as catching 58 passes for 416 yards. Between these two guys, who virtually split touches 50/50, Saints RBs totaled 1844 rushings yards, 25 total TDs, 139 catches, and 1242 receiving yards. These are massive numbers that no one player can conceivably produce on their own. But, with Mark Ingram suspended for the first four games of the 2018 season, it will be all Alvin Kamara in the Saints backfield for at least ¼ of the season. If he produces in a similar fashion to his rookie year, with the increased volume, there’s a good chance New Orleans sticks with him as their primary back and delegate Ingram to change of pace/backup duties. Kamara’s efficiency combined with an increased role could lead to an historic season, one where we see a running back rush for 1000+ yards, catch 100+ balls, and eclipse 1000 yards receiving. For a year like that, Kamara could be awarded MVP.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB Ronald Jones

Is there anyone on this team capable of winning the NFL’s MVP award? Ordinarily, a promising young QB like Jameis Winston would be the easy pick here, but he’s set to serve a three-game suspension to start the season. So what’s more likely, an historic 13-game MVP campaign from a QB who has shown minimal growth over his first three seasons? Or a rookie running back putting together an MVP caliber season? Given the fact that we routinely see electrifying years from rookie running backs, I am going to go with that. So Ronald Jones has to be my pick here. The USC product was drafted in the 2nd round, 38th overall in this summer’s draft. His college career was not quite as accomplished as some of peers, but in his three seasons as a Trojan he ran for 3619 yards and 39 TDs while averaging 6.1 yards per attempt. Now, as a Buccaneer, he will have every opportunity to, not only win the starting job, but also carry this team while Winston is suspended. Of course it will take a massive statistical year from Jones to garner even some hype around an MVP case, but with expectations so low for the Bucs this season anyone who leads this team to the playoffs would get some consideration. To gauge a realistic ceiling for Jones, we can look at a running back with a similar situation and skill set. Just two years ago, then rookie, Jordan Howard led the NFL in rushing yards with 1313 yards in just 13 starts. His 16 game pace for that season would put him at 1400 yards, and 7 TDs to go along with 320 receiving yards. Howard got absolutely no MVP love for his performance, but that’s largely due to the fact that the Bears finished the year at just 3-13. I know its a tall task, but if Ronald Jones can match Howard’s rookie production while leading this Tampa team to the playoffs he could definitely work his way into the MVP discussion.

 

Atlanta Falcons: QB Matt Ryan

Matty Ice was a fairly easy pick for me here. It seems like a lot of people are unfairly down on Ryan after following up his incredible MVP campaign(38 TDs, 7 INTs, 117.1 rating), with a relatively pedestrian 2017 season(20 TDs, 12 INTs, 91.4 rating). However, this guy is just one year removed from one of the most efficient passing seasons we have ever seen, had to deal with a new OC in Steve Sarkisian (who, at times, seemed to forget he had a weapon like Julio Jones at his disposal), and was just months removed from blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. I understand Shanahan is gone, but the Falcons offense should be vastly improved from a season ago. Not only is it the second year in Sarkisian’s system, but it is also a contract year for running back, Tevin Coleman. I expect he will raise his level of play, pushing Devonta Freeman to a bounce back season. Not only that, but Atlanta also added wideout Calvin Ridley, who many analysts pegged as the top WR prospect of the 2018 draft. Ryan has everything he needs to rebound in a big way.

 

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals: RB David Johnson

David Johnson is easily the most talented offensive player on the Cardinals roster. After breaking out in a massive way in 2016, DJ dislocated his wrist in the 2017 opener, subsequently ending his season. All reports indicate he will be 100% for training camp and should return to take on the bulk of the Cardinals offensive touches. Now to look at his chances at MVP, let’s compare his 2016 season to Adrian Peterson’s 2012 MVP season. In 2012, AP rushed for a ridiculous 2097 yards and 12 touchdowns. He also added 40 catches, 217 yards, and 1 touchdown as a receiver. His grand totals equate to 2314 scrimmage yards, and 19 total touchdowns. In David Johnson’s breakout season, he went for 2118 scrimmage yards(1239 rushing, 879 receiving), 80 receptions, and 20 total touchdowns. Startling similar stats, I know. But one thing AP did, that Johnson failed to do, was lead his team to the playoffs. This year, the Cards aren’t expected to be in playoff contention for long, but if Johnson can match or even eclipse his 2016 totals AND lead Arizona back to the playoffs he could easily be crowned MVP.

 

Los Angeles Rams: RB Todd Gurley

Between Todd Gurley and Jared Goff, the Rams have two players capable of someday winning the NFL’s MVP award. However, until I see a true breakout year from the young QB, Gurley has to be choice here. Just last year, Gurley won the Offensive Player of the Year Award and finished second, only to Tom Brady, for the MVP. As a young, dynamic player in a great offense with a great head coach there is no reason to assume that he will not be able to replicate his production from a year ago. In Gurley’s runner up MVP campaign, he ran for 1305 yards and 13 TDs. He also caught 64 passes for 788 yards and 6 TDs. Gurley’s big play ability became the focal point of one of the NFL’s highest scoring offenses and carried the Rams to an 11-5 record. In 2018, I expect him to come close too if not eclipse his season totals from a year ago. Gurley should be in the MVP discussion all year long.

 

San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo

Once thought of as the guy destined to replace Tom Brady as New England’s next franchise QB, Jimmy G was dealt to the 49ers last fall in exchange for a second round pick when it became clear Brady was not slowing down. In his brief 49ers career, Garoppolo impressed enough to earn himself a five-year $137.5 million contract this offseason. He started five games last season, averaging over 300 passing yards per start while throwing seven TDs against five INTs. However, by far the most impressive statistic from Garoppolo’s young career, is that he is UNDEFEATED as a starting quarterback. Between two starts with the Patriots and five starts with the 49ers, he is 7-0. The sample size is incredibly small, but what Garoppolo has accomplished thus far, in his short career, is the best any coach of GM could ask for. This season, he and the San Francisco 49ers are a trendy breakout pick to make a playoff push, but with such limited starting experience its hard to estimate how Garoppolo will perform in 2018. Nevertheless, he got it done when called upon despite a weak defense and limited offensive weapons. To help strengthen this roster, GM John Lynch, went out and acquired former All-Pro CB, Richard Sherman, and a dynamic playmaker in, RB, Jerick McKinnon. With these additions, San Francisco should be much more competitive this season, which will definitely contribute to Garoppolo’s MVP case. Again, there’s not much to go off of, but I don’t think anyone would be surprised if this ,undefeated, Bill Belichick product performed near an MVP level next season.

 

Seattle Seahawks: QB Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson largely began his career as a game manager, relying on the strength of an historically great defense to carry him to two Super Bowls. However, the vaunted “Legion of Boom” has almost entirely dissipated from the current Seahawks roster, forcing Wilson to develop into one of the NFL’s most deadly quarterbacks. What he has done with minimal offensive weapons and virtually no run game to speak of is one of the more underreported stories across the league. Just last season Wilson scored 37 of Seattle’s 38 offensive TDs! Not only did he throw for 34 TDs, but he also lead the team in rushing TDs with three. To my surprise, this performance did not earn Wilson even one MVP vote in 2017. I suspect if Seattle had clawed their way to a playoff spot he would have received, at least, a few votes. Needless to say, this team now belongs to Russell Wilson and as long as he keeps the Seahawks in the playoff hunt each year, he will be a perennial MVP candidate. I would be shocked if he does not win an MVP sometime in the next 3-4 seasons.