MLB Preview: NL West

Baseball is finally here! In our final preview for the 2017 season, we take a look at the NL West. Although the Dodgers are the likely favorites to repeat as Division Champs, they could face some fierce competition this year from the Giants (again) and maybe even some surprising pushback from the Colorado Rockies. It should be an exciting race, so let’s take a closer look at the teams in the NL West.

 

San Diego Padres

More doom and gloom for the Padres is about to come their way in 2017 as they brace for another last place finish in the NL West. Is there any hope for success in the ensuing years? Well, that is entirely hinged upon the division really shaking things up. For the foreseeable future, the Dodgers and Giants have a stranglehold on the top two spots of the NL West. In the meantime (2017-2019), the Padres must develop their young talent. This season, top prospects Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot appear to have starting jobs right out of spring training. They should provide a little more life in the lineup, which relies heavily on production from Wil Myers. Aside from those three guys, the lineup looks pretty dull. The rotation does not appear poised to perform well this year, either, led by Jhoulys Chacin (7-8, 4.07 ERA). In a few years, top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza could help give a boost to the rotation. Until then, the only other starter with a smidge of upside is Luis Perdomo and his mid-to-upper 90’s fastball. Overall, expectations from Padres fans should be extremely tempered for the next few years. The development of power-hitting Renfroe should sell some tickets, but the Padres may be the single team furthest away from competing.

 

Projected Rotation: Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard, Trevor Cahill, Luis Perdomo, Jered Weaver

Projected Lineup: Travis Jankowski (OF), Manuel Margot (OF), Wil Myers (1B), Yangervis Solarte (3B), Hunter Renfroe (OF), Ryan Schimpf (2B), Austin Hedges (C), Austin Hedges (SS)

Key Bullpen Pieces: Carter Capps* (projected Closer, returning from Tommy John), Brandon Maurer, Brad Hand, Ryan Buchter

 

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are close to competing with the Dodgers and Giants atop the NL, but something every year always seems to stand in their way. AJ Pollock’s injury, Shelby Miller and Zack Greinke tossing dud seasons, and growing pains from their young starters have held the D-Backs down. This year, Arizona has the talent and potential to claim a Wild-Card spot in the National League, but that will be hinged upon all of their potential talents turn into legit star players. If newly-acquired Taijuan Walker and strikeout specialist Robbie Ray take their game to the next level, the D-Backs will be in good shape. The steady performance of the lineup, anchored by Paul Goldschmidt, will be a critical cog in Arizona’s 2017 season. Jake Lamb, David Peralta, and Yasmany Tomas have all shown flashes of what they can do. AJ Pollock will need to return to his 2015 form, and (of course) Goldy will need to be the stud cornerstone he usually is. If all of these things can go right… well, expect to see a big crowd atop the NL West come September.

 

Projected Rotation: Zack Greinke, Pat Corbin, Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller

Projected Lineup: AJ Pollock (OF), David Peralta (OF), Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Jake Lamb (3B), Yasmany Tomas (OF), Brandon Drury (2B), Chris Iannetta (C), Chris Owings (SS)

Key Bullpen Pieces: Fernando Rodney (Closer), Archie Bradley, JJ Hoover

 

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have the highest payroll in the MLB, yet continue to disappoint in the playoffs. Every year, they come in labeled as one of the top 5 teams in baseball. However, their lineup seems like it cannot get over the hump. Corey Seager is already the best player, and it is by a wide margin. Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Turner are pretty good, but both are getting older and their performance lacks that electric spark needed to truly compete for a World Series title. Perhaps top prospect Cody Bellinger can provide a jolt to If anything is going to carry them far in the playoffs, it will be the rotation. Very little needs to be said about Clayton Kershaw, the undisputed best pitcher in baseball. Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill are excellent in their roles as mid-rotation guys. Be on the lookout for an incredible year by 20-year-old phenom Julio Urias, who will be let loose for much of the year. His raw stuff could generate some ace-like numbers and make Urias a fearsome cog in the Dodgers rotation, rather than a young prospect trying to get comfortable in the majors. The bullpen is a strength once again, with lockdown closer Kenley Jansen holding down the 9th inning. Looking at the year as a whole, the Dodgers should still be right in the mix for the NL West crown with the Giants, and maybe even the Rockies. In the playoffs, however, they could be looking at another disappointing exit unless they experience some sort of boost in offense.

 

Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon McCarthy* (Urias will take over the 5th spot a few weeks into the year)

Projected Lineup: Logan Forsythe (2B), Corey Seager (SS), Justin Turner (3B), Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Yasmani Grandal (C), Yasiel Puig (OF), Joc Pederson (OF), Andrew Toles (OF)

Key Bullpen Pieces: Kenley Jansen (Closer), Grant Dayton, Sergio Romo, Ross Stripling

 

 

Colorado Rockies

The same problem always persists for the Rockies.  This lineup is scary, and boasts the best bats in the NL West from top to bottom, yet their pitching needs to be far more stable.  Last year Charlie Blackmon emerged as a star, batting .324 with 29 homers.  Coupled with Nolan Arenado, no pitcher wants to come to Coors Field and face this lineup. Arenado hit 41 dingers with 133 RBI’s last year, Carlos Gonzalez had 25, and young shortstop Trevor Story hit 27 in only 97 games.  The Rockies are going to be insanely fun to watch, but run prevention should hold them back again.  Young Jon Gray flashed talent at certain points last year, and if he can take steps forward they will definitely improve over last year.  Tyler Anderson’s performance last year is often overlooked, but he ended with a 3.54 ERA.  For the third spot, Tyler Chatwood will be slotted in, finishing with a modest 3.87 ERA in 2016. He comes off of an 8-1 record and an 1.69 ERA season last year on the road, but then an atrocious 4-8, 6.12 ERA season at home at Coors Field. Then the last two spots in the rotation have never pitched an inning in the majors.  Hard throwing Antonio Senzatela is 22, and lefty fifth starter Kyle Freeland is 23, making the average age of this rotation 24.8.  The bullpen remains even more of a concern with a 5.13 ERA last season, good for last in the MLB. They signed former Royal Greg Holland who was out all last season with Tommy John Surgery. In 2013-2014, however, he was an all star and posted a 1.21 ERA and 1.44 ERA respectfully.  If he can return to anywhere close to that level, it will improve this team big time.  This is an exciting young team, but expect their pitching to hold them to another third place finish in this division.

 

Projected Rotation: Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland

Projected Lineup: Charlie Blackmon (CF), DJ LeMahieu (2B), Nolan Arenado (3B), Carlos Gonzalez (RF), Trevor Story (SS), Gerardo Parra (LF), Mark Reynolds (1B), Tony Wolters (C)

Key Bullpen Pieces: Greg Holland (Closer), Adam Ottavino, Jake McGee, Carlos Estevez

 

 

San Francisco Giants

The Giants finally didn’t win in an even year last year, falling to the World Series champion Cubs in the NLDS.  This lineup is only 19th in runs scored, and it doesn’t scare many people.  Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Hunter Pence are solid in the middle, but the meal ticket for this team is this rotation.  Bumgarner and Cueto are as good of a 1-2 as any, and Matt Moore remains and underrated third starter, as is Jeff Samardzija at the 4th spot.  They are benefited a bit by a division where it’s basically a two horse race, with easy wins lined up with the Padres and D-Backs, and the Rockies to some degree due to their pitching. In the offseason they made a  quiet move to sign Mark Melancon to a bad bullpen last year. During the regular season, the Giants pen blew an absurd 30 saves and down the stretch they finished 8-17 in 1 run games. As always, I will not count the Giants out, but this bullpen needs a bounceback for them to challenge the Nationals and Cubs and even the Dodgers in the National League. They do not have the hitting to compensate and win in high scoring contests, so they will need to win 1 or 2 run games.

 

Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Matt Moore, Jeff Samardzija, Matt Cain

Projected Lineup: Denard Span (CF), Brandon Belt (1B), Buster Posey (C), Hunter Pence (RF), Brandon Crawford (SS), Eduardo Nunez (3B), Joe Panik (2B), Jarrett Parker (LF)

Key Bullpen Pieces: Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Derek Law

 

 

Written by Matt Loehle and Will McGuinness