MLB Preview: NL Central

Next up on Tailgate’s MLB Division Previews is the NL Central, home of the reigning World Series Champions, the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs once again look to be the favorite to win the whole thing again this year, but will there be a second team to emerge from this division as a playoff contender? What about the future for the Reds and Brewers? All the teams here should be fun to watch, but let’s take a closer look at how they stand for 2017.

 

Chicago Cubs

What is harder – ending a 108-year World Series drought, or repeating as champs after you ended that drought? For the Chicago Cubs, they are about to find out. Fortunately for them, much of their young core is still under contract and therefore will remain with the team in 2017. The starting rotation, featuring Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks, will remain the fearsome three-headed monster that will stifle opponents’ bats throughout the year. Although Hendricks is bound for some regression this year, expect the first 4 pitchers of the rotation (including Lackey) to be rock solid. The fifth spot could cause some headaches for the Cubs, it is nothing their lineup cannot make up for. Dexter Fowler may be gone, but that leadoff spot will be taken over by a healthy Kyle Schwarber – an immensely talented young hitter in his own right. Anthony Rizzo, reigning MVP-Kris Bryant, and Addison Russell will pick up right where they left off last year on the best offense in baseball. The bullpen even makes up for the departure of Aroldis Chapman – Theo Epstein traded away expendable Jorge Soler for an elite closer in Wade Davis (albeit with questions about his health). Expect the NL-favorites to win their division pretty handily once again, then compete for another appearance in the World Series deep in the playoffs.

 

Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, Mike Montgomery

Projected Lineup: Kyle Schwarber (OF), Kris Bryant (3B), Anthony Rizzo (1B), Ben Zobrist (2B), Addison Russell (SS), Jayson Heyward (OF), Wilson Contreras (C), Jon Jay (OF)

Key Bullpen Pieces: Wade Davis (Closer), Hector Rondon, Koji Uehara

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have a very average team, and they are probably the team that is most likely to go .500 this year. Look for their ace Gerrit Cole to bounce back with a similar season as he had in 2015, and possibly even have a 20 win season. Jameson Taillon is a solid number two that should come into his prime in a year or so. Ivan Nova, Chad Kuhl, and Drew Hutchison round out what could be a hit or miss, fairly young rotation, with all but Ivan Nova being age 26 or below. Their bullpen, however, is looking a little shaky, so expect manager Clint Hurdle to try to squeeze as many innings out of his starters as possible. Starling Marte leads the solid returning outfield trio of himself, McCutchen, and Polanco. Expect all three of these guys to make up the meat of the order and drive in leadoff man Josh Harrison and 2-man Josh Bell. The lineup drops off a little from here with former Cards hero David Freese will start for Jung Ho Kang, who has no timetable for return, followed by Cervelli and Mercer. Again, this team won’t drop any jaws, but fans won’t be too upset by their performance. Expect a finish around .500, with a ceiling for a wild card team, and a floor of 4th place in the NL Central.

 

Projected Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Chad Kuhl, Drew Hutchison

Projected Lineup: Josh Harrison (2B), Josh Bell (1B), Andrew McCutchen (RF), Starling Marte (CF), Gregory Polanco (LF), David Freese (3B), Francisco Cervelli (C), Jordy Mercer (SS), (pitcher)

Key Bullpen Pieces: Tony Watson (Closer), Daniel Hudson, Juan Nicasio

 

 

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds, being a small-market team, are already at a disadvantage. Now put them in a division with the Cubs, the Cardinals, and the Pirates – you can forget about competing this year. 2017 is all about transitioning the 9th best farm system in baseball to the majors. They have a handful of decent players already up on the major league team, so don’t be surprised if the 2019 and 2020 Reds start looking like a threat in the NL Central. The lineup features stolen-base-aficionado Billy Hamilton, whose improved plate discipline will help his stolen base count creep toward 80. Joey Votto will be the stud he always is, but he will be asked to do more than just perform at the plate. He will need to mentor the young’uns, such as Jesse Winker (you’ll see him soon this year), Jose Peraza (he’s in the starting lineup), and eventually top prospect Nick Senzel (think 2018). Throw in solid young-veteran performers Adam Duvall and Eugenio Suarez, well, the lineup actually doesn’t look too bad. Anthony DeSclafani is a bright spot atop the rotation (when he gets healthy), where he will be followed by a pair of talented young pitchers in Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson. The closer-committee of Raisel Iglesias and Drew Storen will be the strength of this 2017 Reds team, which certainly has a bright future ahead of them.

 

Projected Rotation: Anthony DeSclafani* (out with UCL sprain, likely replaced by Amir Garrett), Brandon Finnegan, Robert Stephenson, Scott Feldman, Cody Reed

Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton (OF), Jose Peraza (2B), Joey Votto (1B), Adam Duvall (OF), Scott Schebler (OF), Zach Cozart (SS), Eugenio Suarez (3B), Devin Mesoraco (C)

Key Bullpen Pieces: Raisel Igelsias and Drew Storen (Closers), Tony Cingrani

 

 

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have been grinding out poor season after poor season in hopes to finally one day return to something similar to the 90-win, 2008 power team. The end of their struggles might be closer than people think; the biggest obstacle might just be how the other teams in their division stack up a few years down the road. The Brewers themselves, however, have a good collection of young talent to display in 2017. Jonathan Villar is an excellent leadoff man, with a ton of speed, good power, and a solid batting average. Young guys like Keon Broxton and Orlando Arcia figure to get plenty of experience this year after playing only part of last season (with below average results). Travis Shaw could sneakily explode for a large number of home runs in the Brewers park, which caters perfectly to the left-handed third-baseman. Ryan Braun should be a centerpiece of the offense once again, but there is a good chance he could get shipped somewhere else if the deal involves enough young talent in return. The Brewers rotation is going to be a strength of this team in a couple years. Newly-developed ace Junior Guerra, Jimmy Nelson, Zach Davies, and prospect Josh Hader all have great potential; expect to see some flashes this year. In 2017, however, Milwaukee will likely be at the cellar of the NL Central. They better hope all their young players reach their potential, or they could be stuck there for a while.

 

Projected Rotation: Junior Guerra, Matt Garza, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Wily Peralta

Projected Lineup: Jonathan Villar (2B), Keon Broxton (OF), Ryan Braun (OF), Eric Thames (1B), Domingo Santana (OF), Travis Shaw (3B), Orlando Arcia (SS), Jett Bandy (C)

Key Bullpen Pieces: Neftali Feliz (Closer), Jacob Barnes, Carlos Torres

 

 

St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at this Cardinals team, the level of success this team experiences will hinge on the rotation.  Back in 2015, the Cards led baseball in ERA, and that translated to the best regular season record in the game as well.   Last year, however, the rotation that was supposed to be just as potent saw major regression.  Other than Carlos Martinez, they ended up being very mediocre, and thus the team missed the playoffs.  One definite bright spot for the Cards came from the offense, which went from 24th in producing runs in 2015 to 4th in 2016.  So the major question for this team is, “Can some of the key pieces in this rotation turn it around?”  The number 2 starter Adam Wainwright turned 35 last year, and by the playoff race this year he will be 36.  His strikeout rate already was in decline before 2016, and he ended with the highest ERA and opponent batting average of his career by the end of the season. During times last season he showed old signs of himself, but the point is the old Wainwright at the top of the league is almost certainly not coming back.  25 year old Michael Wacha gives me strong hope to bounce back, and boy are his Spring Training stats encouraging. (3-0, 2.05 ERA in 22 innings with 18 K’s).  Mike Leake and recent Tommy John pitcher Lance Lynn will be key cogs to Cards success in 2017.  Nowhere in this lineup is there a mega stud bat, but it just works. Stephen Piscotty, Matt Carpenter, newly signed Dexter Fowler, and Aledmys Diaz, and of course Yadi Molina will push runs across. There is not a liability (besides the pitcher hitting) in this lineup.  Even if all the pieces in the rotation do not completely rebound, I still see the Cards  absolutely clawing for a playoff spot at season’s end.

 

Projected Rotation: Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Mike Leake

Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler (CF), Aledmys Diaz (SS), Matt Carpenter (1B), Stephen Piscotty (RF), Yadier Molina (C), Jhonny Peralta (3B), Randal Grichuk (LF), Kolton Wong (2B)

Projected Bullpen Pieces: Seung Hwan Oh (Closer), Trevor Rosenthal, Jonathan Broxton, Brett Cecil

 

 

Written by Matt Loehle, Will McGuinness, and Cam Simes