MLB Preview: AL East

 As we look forward to what should be an outstanding baseball season, every week leading up to the MLB season we will post a preview of each division. Starting with the AL East, we look at a talented division that showcased three playoff teams last year.  Stay tuned for our official predictions and fantasy advice as the season gets closer.  It’s almost time for  America’s pastime, so it’s officially time to get hyped for it!

 

Boston Red Sox

The torrid stretch that propelled the 2016 Red Sox to a division crown ended about two weeks too early. They stumbled into the playoffs, the bats went quiet, and David Ortiz’s final season ended in a depressing sweep by the Cleveland Indians. But Red Sox fans have plenty of reason for optimism in 2017, especially considering their team is an early favorite to win the World Series this year. The biggest splash this offseason was Chris Sale, arguably a top-3 pitcher in the entire league. He now leads the three-headed monster of the Red Sox rotation to go along with David Price and Cy-Young-winner Rick Porcello. The lineup remains formidable, even after the loss of David Ortiz. They have a full season of Andrew Benintendi to supplement the core killer B’s – Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley. The defense should remain a strength, with young legs patrolling the outfield. Overall, the key to the 2017 Red Sox is dealing with pressure and developing good team chemistry. They will be heavy favorites, and the Boston sports atmosphere will always add pressure to a talented team. Many players on this young Red Sox team got their first taste of the playoffs last year – and their inexperience was visible. This year, expect them to return with a more mature approach and be one of the top teams in the American League.

 

Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez  

Projected Lineup: Dustin Pedroia, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, Pablo Sandoval, Mitch Moreland, Sandy Leon, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Projected Key Bullpen Pieces: Craig Kimbrel (Closer), Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith*, Matt Barnes, Steven Wright

*injured, likely until June

 

 

New York Yankees

It is remarkable to watch the Yankees rebuild their roster with a youth movement while simultaneously staying competitive. Although nobody expects them to be a World Series contender, New York has been in the running for a Wild Card spot for the past couple years (they made the playoffs in 2015). This season, expect more of the same as the Yankees will try to incorporate some pieces of their future core into a veteran major league roster. This includes slugger Aaron Judge, first baseman Greg Bird, and – the prize return of the Andrew Miller trade – Clint Frazier. Offensively, the Yankees might have difficulty putting up large run totals, as their lone threat for 25+ home runs is Gary Sanchez. The pitching department is even more of a concern for this Yankees team, as they will have to rely on Masahiro Tanaka (who is on perpetual injury watch) and CC Sabathia (36 years old, with a lot of mileage on his arm) as two of their top starters. There is some hope that Luis Severino, who has a dynamic arm and was electric in the bullpen at the end of last year, will get another crack at a rotation spot. In the bullpen, Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances will lock down what will be one of the strongest duos in the majors this year. Although the future looks bright for the Yankees, 2017 will likely be the first time in 24 seasons that they fall below .500 for their overall record.

 

Projected Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Chad Green

Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius, Chase Headley, Greg Bird, Aaron Judge

Projected Key Bullpen Pieces: Aroldis Chapman (Closer), Dellin Betances, Tyler Clippard   

 

 

Tampa Bay Rays

Quietly the Tampa Bay Rays strung together some quality moves that could pay dividends down the road.  They certainly won’t “wow” you looking at this roster right now, but expect them to outperform their expectations in a good division.  Their quiet moves to get bonafide young talent in return for solid but not great veterans makes sense.  In a smart deal, the Rays acquired number 33 prospect Jose De Leon for streaky veteran Logan Forsythe.  The 30 year old Forsythe bursted out to a .341 average in April, then hit .200 in May, .306 in June, .196 in July. Get the trend here? De Leon struggled in his brief stint in the majors, but still has loads of potential with a pitching arsenal that dominated the minors.  He is now paired with home-grown number 40 prospect Brent Honeywell, who scouts rave as a fierce competitor and the adept owner of a “nasty” screwball and an above average changeup.  Where can the Rays ultimately finish this year in the AL East?  They still have obvious holes in their lineup around the aging Evan Longoria.  Although the signing of Wilson Ramos was one of my favorites of the offseason, they did not add much else.  If Chris Archer can revert back to his 2015 form and young Blake Snell performs as well as he did last year over a full season,  they look to have very good if not excellent pitching and defense. They need the offense to be at least average and ultimately they could make some noise in this division. My biggest intrigue for the Rays this season will be the performances of Honeywell and De Leon when they ultimately are promoted at some point.  Add on 19th overall prospect Willy Adames and 73rd overall mashing 3B Jake Bauers, this team will be pesky but more scares me in the future, not now.

 

Projected rotation: Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell, Alex Cobb, Alex Andriese

Projected Lineup: Nick Franklin (2B), Kevin Kiermaier (CF), Evan Longoria (3B), Brad Miller (1B), Corey Dickerson (DH), Matt Duffy (SS), Steven Souza Jr. (RF), Luke Maile (Catcher)(due to Wilson Ramos missing start of year), Mallex Smith (LF)

Projected Key Bullpen Pieces: Alex Colome (Closer), Brad Boxberger, Danny Farquhar

 

 
Baltimore Orioles

The annual PECOTA projections have been released, and the Orioles are viewed as a below .500 team, while their division foes, the Red Sox and Rays, are considered the playoff teams.  They’re a consistent model of the flaws of this projection, however, as they have outperformed their expectations every year since 2012, holding a .500 or better record every year since 2011.  The same problem persists with the Orioles though: their starting pitching is always garbage. Chris Tillman had a “career year” in 2016,  if you want to call it that, so hopefully for the Orioles’ sake he can at least perform at that level again.  Surprisingly, I like Kevin Gausman this year. Although he went just 9-12, he showcased some good numbers in his first real chance at a full 30 start season.  He has always displayed good command of the strike zone, and after the all star break, he sported a 23.8 percent strikeout rate in 10 quality starts with a 3.10 era. Twenty four year old Bundy is working on adding his cutter back into his repertoire as an 0-2 pitch, which could be huge for his development.   If Gausman can pitch at his level in the latter half of last year and Bundy can improve, it will be enough for the Orioles to be at least the second best in this division. The Baltimore pen aided by the career year of closer Zach Britton looks to be strong again, and we all know what this potent Baltimore offense can do. Manny Machado continues to improve as a superstar and we know Chris Davis and Trumbo will have their fair share of round-trippers. In the end, the success of this team will plain and simple come down to the starting pitching.

 

Projected Rotation: Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Wade Miley, Ubaldo Jimenez

Projected Lineup: Adam Jones (CF), Manny Machado (3B), Chris Davis (1B), Mark Trumbo (DH), Jonathan Schoop (2B), Seth Smith (RF), Wellington Castillo (Catcher), J.J. Hardy (SS), Hyun Soo Kim (LF)

Projected Key Bullpen Pieces: Zach Britton (Closer), Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, Darren O’Day

 

 

Toronto Blue Jays

Losing Edwin Encarnacion leaves a mark, clearly. People forget that the departure of Michael Saunders will quietly hurt too.   But is that enough to knock this team down from the upper half of the division?  Take a look at that projected lineup and tell me that it is not still strong.  New fifth hitter, Kendrys Morales, may not be EE, but he still hit 30 homers along with 93 RBIs last year.  They will still be a good offensive team, and to that point I believe Donaldson will make another run at the MVP with 35-40 homers, 100 RBIs and a high .200 average season. The Blue Jays, however, are still ripe for a down year.  Even if regression does not occur or is minor in the lineup, it is bound to come from their rotation.  Their starters ranked 6th in era in the MLB in 2016, and this was definitely a case of the staff outplaying their talent level. Aaron Sanchez, JA Happ, and Marco Estrada were in the lowest 20 in the MLB in BABIP(Batting Average of Balls in Play), meaning they either got lucky their pitches turned into outs or they are particularly skilled at inducing ground ball or fly ball outs.  Depending on how much credence you give to this statistic will determine how worried you are for the Blue Jays rotation.   Sanchez is a ground ball pitcher and the Blue Jays do feature good infield defense, so maybe it is a case of pitching to his team’s strength over luck.  Although Estrada led the MLB in BABIP in 2016, he did in 2015 too.  This could mean he is simply skilled at inducing weak contact as a fly ball pitcher.  He regressed last year though and will likely regress again.  Thirty four year old JA Happ with his 79 percent strand rate of runners on base and high BABIP would scare me the most as a Blue Jays fan.  As a pitcher who has no overpowering stuff, it is all but definite that Happ regresses.  A good rotation but one that will regress, and a good lineup but one that will regress. What does this equal? A regressing team. Look for the Blue Jays to fight for 2nd in a packed division.

 

Projected Rotation: Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, Marcus Stroman, Francisco Liriano

Projected Lineup: Devon Travis (2B), Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Josh Donaldson (3B), Jose Bautista (RF), Kendrys Morales (DH), Russell Martin (Catcher), Justin Smoak (1B), Kevin Pillar (CF), Ezequiel Carrera (LF)

Projected Key Bullpen Pieces: Roberto Osuna (Closer), Jason Grilli, Joe Biagini

 

 

 

Written by Matt Loehle and Will McGuinness