Mitch’s Gambling Corner: August 22nd

Odds Based on Bovada

Alright everybody, it’s the heart of baseball season. Baseball is the most unpredictable sport game by game, but arguably the most predictable over the course of the season. To be successful, we must stick to the long haul. It is a long season in baseball, 162 games -there are anomalies. If I start going negative in football when that time comes, I deserve all the criticism possible, and over a large sample size of baseball, I deserve criticism. But for one day, 1-3-1 is not the worst outcome, especially with favorable odds in all but 1 of the matchups. I will be better over a larger sample size.

My Five Best Bets of the Day:

1. Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5 runs) (+110)

My best bet from last night. Following an 8-2 win over the Orioles, Toronto looks to beat up on the TERRIBLE orioles one more time. Hess is pitching for the Orioles and has an ERA around 6 while Pannone’s is about 2 points lower at 4.95, in a small sample size of 4.1 innings out of the bullpen. The Orioles are just so bad that the pitcher does not matter that much. Bet Blue Jays spread. They should win comfortably like they did yesterday.

       2. Texas Rangers at Oakland A’s (-1.5 Runs) (+105)

The hottest team since the middle of June has been the Oakland Athletics. They have a better record than all teams since June 12th. Edwin Jackson is pitching for Oakland tonight and has a 2.68 ERA over the season and a 0.96 ERA over his last 5. Betting against Oakland in this hot streak, where they recently took 2 of 3 from the defending World Series champions, the Astros in the last week, is absurd. With that being said, Oakland wants to take the lead in the division, so them beating up on the lowly Texas Rangers should be a breeze for the Athletics.

       3. Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox (+110)

Boston has not lost more than 3 games in a row all season. I know this follows the logic that I used yesterday, but this is where baseball being a game of averages comes in. There are unexpected streaks throughout the season, like losing three straight, but there is almost always regression to the mean. Carlos Carrasco has been lights out since the all star break, but there should be a regression to the means. As long as Brian Johnson can get out of the first inning without letting up more than one or two runs he should settle down and carry the Red Sox to the win. Maybe this is a homer pick, but all things feel right for a Red Sox victory tonight.

      4. Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) (+105)

The Royals are terrible this season, being only one game better than the Orioles while the Rays are four games over .500. The Rays have also recently beaten both the Red Sox and the Yankees and the only reason for their record not being better is because of the Red Sox and the Yankees, who both play the Rays nineteen times a year. Take the Rays, even with the spread, because they are a better team than their record suggests. 

5. St. Louis Cardinals (+147) at LA Dodgers

The Cardinals have been moving up in the rankings and are currently holding the first wild card spot in the National League. Jack Flaherty has a sub 1 ERA over his last three starts and he is going against Walker Buehler who has a 1.47 ERA over his last 3. This will be a battle of the pitchers and the St. Louis offense has been very hot lately, led by Matt Carpenter. It is hard to pick against a hot team with these odds and for that reason, take the Cardinals straight up against the heavily favored Dodgers.