Matt’s Reactions to Recent MLB Free Agent Signings

Spring weather is arriving, and the remaining guys on the free agent market are being snatched up. We recently went over the fallout of the Yu Darvish signing with the Cubs, but a whole lot more has been happening in baseball besides that. Here are some reactions from other recent signings/trades, and some more prospective landing spots for the guys still out there.

JD Martinez to the Red Sox (5 years, 110 million)

Obviously, we have to start with the most impactful free agent signing in JD Martinez. Boston finally got their guy, which turned out to be critical after seeing the Yankees make some huge improvements on their roster. Martinez is going to add home run pop to the Sox lineup – and it is badly needed. They were last in the American League in home runs last year. That being said, I expect a rebound season for Betts, plus some power growth by Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi. JD Martinez, however, brings a sure-fire 35 home run potential to Fenway Park. He will be able to use the Green Monster to his advantage, which could help his slugging percentage and maybe even batting average. Working primarily as the DH, he should (hopefully) be able to avoid major injuries this season. Overall, great signing. Good financially for the Sox, it helps them counteract moves made by New York, the young guys in the lineup finally have some protection, and Red Sox fans can finally look forward to seeing a real slugger in their lineup after an abysmal 2017 home run season.

Eric Hosmer to the Padres (8 years, 144 million)

Hosmer has found a home in San Diego, and hopefully he likes it. He will be there for a minimum of five years, trying to help the young Padres climb out of the cellar. What does he bring? Underrated production, for sure. Last year he hit .318, 25 home runs, and 94 RBI’s in a below-average Royals lineup. The Padres now have Hosmer, Wil Myers (.243, 30HR), Hunter Renfroe (.231, 26HR), and emerging stud Manuel Margot as the heart of their lineup. Not terrible, but still far away from being able to compete. The rotation is still a huge weakness for this team, but a lot can change in five years. Hosmer brings stability, a franchise cornerstone, and veteran clubhouse leadership to the Padres.

Jake Odorizzi to the Twins (via trade)

Odorizzi is the kind of guy that you are absolutely comfortable with as your number 3 or 4 starter. Anything higher than that is a stretch, but the Twins will be asking him to take the ball right behind Jose Berrios – who, by the way, is no certainty himself. Odorizzi put up a 4.14 ERA over 143 innings and logged 127 strikeouts, which are all pedestrian numbers. However, I believe he has the potential for greater. Still just 27 years old, he put up a 3.35 ERA in 2015 and a 3.69 ERA in 2016. The Twins will be hoping for numbers closer to those, because their rotation will be hinged upon Odorizzi’s ability to succeed there. If he does not improve, I doubt the Twins can repeat any sort of a playoff run after last year’s surprise. Maybe they can land Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn before the season starts – then we can start talking playoffs.

Jaime Garcia to the Blue Jays (1 year, 8 million)

I like this move a lot. The Blue Jays are going after another playoff run with their core, and they recognized that they needed to sure up the back of their rotation. Jaime Garcia is still just 31 years old and has plenty of serviceable innings left in him. Relying on Garcia to be anything more than a 5^th or 4^th starter is foolish, but the Jays are asking him to do just that. Toss as many quality games as you can, and if he can get his ERA under 4.00 then Toronto will be thrilled. They have a good rotation, headlined by Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman. Marco Estrada and JA Happ are on the next tier, and I believe Garcia will be able to pitch up to their level. Not a flashy move but a good one.

Andrew Cashner to the Orioles (2 years, 16 million)

The Orioles rotation is Dylan Bundy, and then a bunch of guys who all seem the same to me. Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, Wade Miley, and now Andrew Cashner. They all are really mediocre pitchers who frankly will not take any team to the playoffs. The Orioles may be thinking Cashner will provide their rotation with a boost, but in reality he won’t. All his numbers and analytics point to him having a down year last year. He got lucky in 2017 to post a 3.40 ERA – very low strikeouts, high walk rate, injury prone, and an unsustainable BABIP (metric that measures opponent batting average on balls hit in play; Cashner’s was way too low). Best case scenario is that he provides stability in the 3^rd spot in the Orioles rotation. Worst case scenario is that he is a bust, getting paid for inflated numbers, probably gets hurt, and the Orioles come in last in the division.

Matt’s predictions for the guys still left…

• Jake Arrieta to the Phillies. They can pay him Yu Darvish-money and definitely could use an ace.
• Mike Moustakas to the Yankees. New York is starting Miguel Andujar at third base. Miguel Andujar who? And they expect to win the World Series this year… Moose makes sense there.
• Lance Lynn to the Brewers. If they want to seriously compete they need him atop their rotation.
• Alex Cobb to the Twins. Like the Brewers, they need Cobb or Lynn to compete for the Wild Card.
• Logan Morrison to the Royals. They just lost Hosmer and need a replacement.
• Greg Holland to the Cardinals. They lack a real closer, and while Holland has his question marks, he has track history and potential to be a stud back there.

Written by Matt Loehle