Los Angeles Chargers: AFC West Threat?
August 28, 2017
The AFC West has turned into one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, with four very capable teams all aiming for that top spot this year. The Raiders are the popular pick to win the division, especially after a stellar 2016 season that ended only after Derek Carr’s poorly-timed broken leg. The Broncos and Chiefs both have top tier defenses in the league, which could carry them into the wild card race this year. Too often overlooked, however, is the Los Angeles Chargers, fresh off their move north a few hundred miles from San Diego. Believe it or not, they are better prepared to challenge the Raiders for the AFC West crown than either the Broncos or the Chiefs. Here is a list of the reasons why the Chargers will make a leap in 2017:
- A healthy Keenan Allen. When your best receiver goes down with a torn ACL in Week 1, you are already at a disadvantage. Allen is a dynamic receiver when he’s on the field, and reports out of training camp indicate that he doesn’t look at all like a guy coming off a knee injury. Rivers will be thrilled to get Allen back on the field, who will likely be the go-to-guy in what could be a high-powered offense. His injury could also be considered a blessing in disguise, because it helped Tyrell Williams emerge as a dependable WR1 weapon for Rivers. Now you get both guys on the field at the same time.
- Better red zone performance. The Chargers lost a ton of close games in 2016. Probably the most frustrating part for the players was the lack of red zone consistency, as lengthy drives ended in field goals all too often. The Chargers decided to address this weakness in the draft, picking big-body Mike Williams in the first round. If he recovers from his back injury and can play at least half the season, he will become good red zone threat for Rivers to throw to.
- Reverse of fortunes. Place the blame however you want, but it is hard to deny that the Chargers were unlucky in 2016. They finished with a record of 5-11, but that could have easily been something a whole lot more respectable if they managed the end of their games better. 10 of their 11 losses were by one score. That is bound to change at least a little bit in 2017.
- Improved offensive line. The Chargers also used the draft to address their offensive line needs, taking interior linemen Forrest Lamp and Dan Feeney with back-to-back picks. They upgraded their left tackle to Russell Okung, and already have two guys on the interior with high potential in Matt Slauson and Max Tuerk. Simply put, they can’t get much worse. They ranked last in QB pressures allowed over the past three years. Even small improvements on the line can go a long way.
- Melvin Gordon taking another step forward. The 3rd year back is poised to build off his solid 2016 season. New head coach Anthony Lynn is an ex-running back coach, so expect Gordon to be a workhorse this year. He has looked sharp in camp and has the talent to be an offensive stud, especially at the goal line behind the improved interior offensive line.
- Joey Bosa with a year under his belt, and a new scheme. 2016 first round pick Joey Bosa had 10.5 sacks last year as a rookie, and made his presence felt as an edge rusher. Now, he’s got a full year of NFL experience under his belt so it is only natural to expect improvement. Not only that, but defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is transforming the Chargers to a 4-3 defense, which puts Bosa into his natural college position (where he excelled). Melvin Ingram, on the other side of the Chargers’ defense, will no longer have to worry about dropping into coverage and thus should improve in 2017 as well.
- Regression of other AFC West teams. The Chiefs lost Jeremy Maclin and Dontari Poe, and the Broncos lost Demarcus Ware. That’s got to be good news for the Chargers, who haven’t lost anyone significant (Woodhead can be replaced easily). Also, all the teams in the AFC West are terrible against the run, so expect Melvin Gordon to be used with great success against his division rivals.
- Philip Rivers is still the quarterback. You aren’t going anywhere in the league without a capable quarterback (@Broncos), and the Chargers are blessed to still have one of the better play callers in the league. He is not at the same tier as Brady/Brees/Rodgers, but Rivers still helps the offense much more than he hurts it. With him as your quarterback, you always are going to have a fighting chance in games.
Prediction – Raiders 11-5 (Division Champ), Chargers 10-6 (Wild Card), Chiefs (8-8), Broncos (5-11)
Written by Matt Loehle