Is There Any Way Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger Do Not Win the AL and NL Rookie of the Year?

This 2017 season has brought us some new stars in the MLB, but perhaps it is quality over quantity. We got spoiled over the past two years with the amount of stud rookies that make the jump and immediately make a huge impact on their team.

Here is a list of some from 2016: Trea Turner, Corey Seager, David Dahl, Nomar Mazara, Trevor Story, Jon Gray, Michael Fulmer, Alex Bregman, Steven Matz.

And here is a list from 2015: Kris Bryant, Carlos Rodon, Noah Syndergaard, Francisco Lindor, Aaron Sanchez, Jake Lamb, Lance McCullers, Addison Russell, Maikel Franco, Luis Severino.

That is a lot of star-caliber MLB players over the past two years. Obviously, the minor leagues can’t keep up that sort of pace. It seems that 2017 is the year that the rookie-superstar class is few and far between. Aaron Judge has all but dominated in the AL, and Cody Bellinger has been his counterpart in the NL. Because these are the two most impactful and recognizable players out of the 2017 rookie class, will there even be a competition for the Rookie of the Year Awards?

In the National League, Cody Bellinger has the award wrapped up. If he got hurt today and was out for the remainder of the season, he would still be the winner by a substantial margin. His current stat line of .274, 34 home runs, 48 walks, and 9 stolen bases is a great season by veteran-MLB-player standards, let alone rookie standards. He has been a dynamic force in the Dodgers lineup, and is a huge reason why they have a shot at breaking the 116-regular season win record mark. Other NL rookies are having nice seasons, but Bellinger makes them look downright silly. Josh Bell (.261, 21 home runs), Hunter Renfroe (.230, 20 home runs), and Dansby Swanson (.218, 6 home runs) actually seem more like rookies, rather than stud veteran ballplayers.

Before the All-Star Break, you would be crazy to think that anybody other than Aaron Judge had a chance at the award. He was in the running for AL MVP along with Rookie of the Year, and on pace to have one of the greatest seasons by an MLB player in recent history – seriously. He hit .329 with 30 home runs and 6 steals in half a season, before putting on a show at the Home Run Derby and subsequently being crowned as the new face of baseball. However, either the Derby messed up his swing timing, pitchers adjusted, or it is just an inevitable regression, Judge has fallen off a cliff the past few weeks. He set a new record for consecutive games with a strikeout. His batting average dropped 47 points to .282, and he is hitting just .180 since the All-Star Break. Could the door be open for Boston’s Andrew Benintendi, who has caught fire recently? His stats don’t stand out much yet, hitting .277 with 17 homers and 14 steals. But he’s clubbed 5 home runs in his past 13 games, along with hitting .361 during that span. And, for what it’s worth, he has hit extremely well during some critical Sox-Yankees games this month. Despite this, Judge is still in the driver’s seat for the AL Rookie of the Year. I would give him an 85% chance of winning the award; his entire body of work for the season is still otherworldly for a rookie. Plus, his name recognition throughout the country is much higher than Benintendi’s, thanks in part to his larger-than-life stature and his performance at the Home Run Derby. Food for thought though: if Judge continues to slump, finishes the season hitting .250 while Benintendi rides his hot streak through September (perhaps hitting in the .295 range), the race might be much closer than anticipated. Barring the extremely unlikely, however, expect Judge to win Rookie of the Year after clearing the 45 home run mark by the end of the season.

Written by Matt Loehle