How Yu Darvish to the Cubs Affects the NL
February 16, 2018
One less superstar free agent is off the board in what has been a “quiet” offseason in baseball. Yu Darvish is going to be a Chicago Cub for the next 6 years, earning himself a smooth 126 million. Frankly, I think this is actually a great pairing. Darvish is staying in the National League, going from one top contender to another. The Cubs have a young, talented core and a deep rotation that won’t put too much pressure on Darvish’s back. He will be the ace on paper, but Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are both frontline starters, and Hendricks has an ace-level ceiling (see: 2016 numbers). Tyler Chatwood will likely be the 5th guy, taking on the role of a high-3’s ERA innings eater. The Cubs suddenly have a fearsome rotation, one that has the potential to be the best. So how does Yu Darvish change the Cubs – and what does this mean for the other NL contenders?
Recency bias will have people questioning Darvish’s ace-caliber status. His two World Series starts were atrocious; there’s not much more to say about that. His 2017 season as a whole was a little inflated at first glance, seeing his out-of-ordinary 3.44 ERA. However, that was due to an increase in home runs allowed, which is a potentially variable statistic. His strikeouts were still there (209, 12th in baseball) and his WHIP was also elite (1.16). This upcoming season will be another year removed from Tommy John surgery, which the Cubs probably investigated fully to ensure they were getting a healthy Yu Darvish. I expect him to have a healthy season with better stats, and we are looking at a possible 18-20 game winner behind the powerful Cubs lineup. The only downside for the Cubs is going to be at the back end of this deal, when they are paying a 36/37-year-old Japanese pitcher $21 million a year. However, I would much rather be paying Darvish than Arrieta at this point. Jake Arrieta has more mileage on his arm, and frankly, is more unpredictable. His past two seasons have certainly been rocky, and I don’t blame Theo Epstein for not showing total confidence in signing Arrieta to the lengthy contract he was looking for. I would much rather have a strikeout artist with nasty stuff – they tend to have more predictable success.
The Cubs getting Darvish basically snuffs out any talk of the Brewers competing for the NL Central title. Milwaukee was a very trendy, upstart pick to give the Cubs a run for their money – especially after signing Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. If it had been the Brewers that got Darvish, I would be more willing to listening to arguments supporting a power shift in the division. But, alas, the Chicago Cubs got their #1 guy, secured their rotation, and will have no trouble locking up the division now. The Brewers rotation is flat out not good enough to carry this team to playoff success. They need legitimate improvements, especially with Jimmy Nelson out until June. Expect them to sign either Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn – both solid arms, but still out of Darvish’s class.
Darvish’s signing also makes the Cubs a more dangerous team in the playoffs (obviously). There is certainly something to be said about having a single, dominant starter in a postseason series. Look at how the Dodgers use Kershaw, or the Indians use Kluber. Even Verlander on the Astros turned out to be an X factor. Having a shutdown guy that can pitch on short rest can change the dynamic of a series – it is like having an ace in the hole, literally. Assuming Darvish has the year I expect him to have, the Cubs will have their weapon in the playoffs to deploy multiple times in a series. This is bad news for the Dodgers, Mets, Nationals, or anyone else that is going to end up facing them. The Cubs got stronger. All their young guys got another year of experience. They lost Arrieta, but replaced him with a better version. I think this move puts the Cubs back in the World Series this year, competing for a 2nd championship in 3 years.
Written by Matt Loehle
