From Bad to…Good?? Why the Brewers Have Thrived Thus Far in 2017

This season, an array for surprising teams have emerged as revenants after pathetic 2016 performances.  Among these teams, the Milwaukee Brewers have soared to the top of the NL Central with the aid of the long ball, and they have provoked the question of whether they are merely a first half Cinderella story, who will eventually fade, or a true threat to excel this season?  Being almost a third of the way through this season, it no longer seems premature to being to analyze this Brewers team as a legitimate threat.  A look back at their peaks and valleys over the last 5 years reveals an inability to steadily compete, but could this be the season the brewers turn it around? Trough this lens I will take a look at what has made the Brewers tick thus far and determine whether the success they have garnered at this early stage is justified.

The Buildup:

96-66. On the surface this type of record would seem appropriate for teams such as the Giants, Red Sox, Yankees, or Cardinals, who have enjoyed success in this recent era of baseball. Yet, the 96-66 mark was accomplished by the star studded 2011 Milwaukee Brewers, comprised of an assortment of All-Stars in their primes; Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Ricky Weeks, and K-Rod combined their efforts to boast the best record in the majors in those days. But oh the times have changed. One look at the Brewers current roster quickly reflects the rebuilding project underway. After a 68 win season in 2015 and a 73 win season in 2016, it became increasingly apparent that the Brewers glory days were in the past and roster reconstruction was essential going into the 2017 campaign

Looking Towards the Future:

Over the course of the last few years, the Brewers general management has stood out as one of the most active in the Majors. While it is easy to scrutinize the management for unleashing already accomplished commodities ranging from Jean Segura, to Yovani Gallardo, Jonathan Lucroy, K-Rod, and Tyler Thornburg, they received substantial returns for these names. They acquired top prospect Lewis Brinson in the Lucroy deal and they later traded Will Smith to the Giants and received former first round pick, pitcher Phil Bickford, in the process. While Brinson and Bickford for now are just names to the nearsighted casual fan, they do represent part of the impending bright future for this Brewers club:

The 2017 Surprise:

While the Brewers early season dominance has reached a relative cooling point in recent weeks they still don an impressive 28-25 record, good enough for a 2 game lead in the underwhelming N.L. Central. The past few seasons have seen the Brewers get bullied by their divisional opponents consistently, but this year they are over .500 within the division with a 13-12 record. Prior to the season, the Brewers were among the supposed lost causes, and were deemed by most predictors as a definite bottom feeder. So the question becomes: Why are the Brewers actually good this year?

The Contributors on Offense:

The immediate and most obvious reason for the Brewers reversal of fortunes is traveled slugger Eric…Thames. Only a few years ago Thames appeared condemned to a life in the minors, yet after three years playing professional baseball in Korea, Thames has accumulated both the confidence and plate discipline to mash major league pitching. Heading into the month of June he has made a big splash with his 14 Homers and 28 RBI’s and he is on pace for a 40/80 season; his ability to put the ball in play and hit for an adequate average makes him a more than serviceable replacement for strikeout machine Chris Carter. Another pleasant surprise for the Brewers has been Travis Shaw, who they acquired this offseason from the Red Sox in return for the still injured Tyler Thornburg. Shaw was set to be the replacement for third basemen Will Middlebrooks, but the expectations were not exceedingly overwhelming upon his arrival. Shaw posted 16 home runs and 71 RBI’s in combination with his ordinary .242 batting average for the Red Sox in the 2016 campaign. However, the limited plate appearances in correspondence with his flashes of streaky power last season made him an intriguing target for the Brewers. Minor injuries have limited Shaw to play in only 46 of the team’s 55 games, yet the injuries have not hindered his performance. Shaw has been a significant part of the Brewers rampant run scoring, smashing his way to a .292 average with 9 homers and 36 RBI’s as one of the centerpieces in their lineup. Beyond these two names there has been overlooked production as well, including from Manny Pina, who leads rookies with a .305 batting average and has also been a reliable game manager in as their now established starting catcher. The whole lineup from top to bottom has been consistent; it is a lineup with no breaks for opposing pitchers.

The Bend But Don’t Break Pitching:

The Brewers pitchers statistically have accumulated an unimpressive stat line at this point in the year. Neftali Feliz, arguably their biggest offseason acquisition, has been an absolute bust thus far. 1-4 with a 5.32 era is probably not what the doctor ordered but others in the Brewers bullpen, including Corey Knebel, have been valuable in limiting the damage. In fact, saves converted is one of the only pitching stats of which the Brewers are in the top ten in the league. They are 18th in ERA, 27th in BAA, and 17th in strikeouts as well as middle of the pack for most other categories. Zach Davies and Wily Peralta have underperformed at this point, but the performances of Matt Garza, Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson have managed to undermine the negative performances of Davies and Peralta. However, if one thing is definitive in the MLB it is the necessity of a deep rotation and a dependable bullpen to make it far come October, so the Brewers pitching will need to progress as the season moves forward.

The Braun Contract:

The Brewers management is actively trying to shop Ryan Braun, yet they had no intentions of being in the hunt later this season. An interesting unfolding storyline could be whether they will shop Braun even if they continue their pace in the playoff chase, especially if he is producing at his full potential around the July 31st trade deadline.

Prediction:  

82-80 No Playoffs — Expectations must be tempered until the pitching staff and bullpen improve. But their potent offense can certainly keep them from falling off in 2017.

Written by Paul McGovern