Are the Braves the suprise team to contend out of the NL East?

Some parts of the 2018 MLB season are starting to level out – teams like the Yankees and Nationals are making their steady climb up the standings, while the Mets have come back down to earth. Some funky trends, however, have remained. The Pirates haven’t started to suck yet. The Dodgers are still floundering out of the gate and all of a sudden, the NL West looks like it’s up for grabs. But for me, the biggest story so far this season is the Atlanta Braves. They are playing some damn good baseball. I had picked the Phillies to be the team to take a huge step forward this season (at 22-15, I still feel good about it), but the Braves are certainly making some noise. They are the latest team to flex on the league with their youth. Ozzie Albies has shown some surprising power potential, mashing 11 home runs. Sean Newcomb is well on his way to acehood. Freddie Freeman is anchoring down the team with his consistent .300 average. Just like that, the Braves have vaulted themselves into being a trendy pick to maybe sneak into the playoffs. What can we expect from them going forward? How sustainable is this fiery start to the season?

Personally, I am not hopping on the Braves bandwagon in 2018. While I am very impressed with what I’ve seen so far, this stretch of about 40 games is just an extended glimpse of Atlanta’s future. It is far from a finished product. Don’t get me wrong; I think the Braves will be right there with the Phillies as an NL East powerhouse for the next decade. I just doubt Atlanta’s ability to finish the 2018 season over .500. While the Braves are speckled with young studs, they are still filling a bunch of holes with older, overperforming veterans. Nick Markakis is hitting an absurd .338 with seven homers. Sustainable? Not a chance. Kurt Suzuki is hitting .300 with 5 homers, Ryan Flaherty is hitting .310, and Preston Tucker is hitting .272 when he shouldn’t be. That is a whole lot of production is covering up some holes in the Braves’ lineup. Dansby Swanson just suffered a wrist injury and is expected to miss more than the allotted 10 days on his DL stint, which should take a toll on the offense. As for Ronald Acuna… it’s hard for me to say bad things about him. He is a fixture in my fantasy baseball outfield and has a really, really sexy home run swing. But, like all young players, Acuna is going to have growing pains (think: Aaron Judge, second half of 2017). Major league pitchers will adjust to him. The same thing can be said about Ozzie Albies, who won’t keep up this torrid home run pace either.

The Baby Braves of Atlanta are just getting started. They have a bunch more guys tearing up the minors. Third base prospect Austin Riley and starting pitcher Bryse Wilson just got the promotion to the majors and should make an impact with the club. It just all feels very early in the process. Personally, I see them as one year behind the Phillies as far as youth development goes. Philadelphia has established their young stars (Hoskins/Herrera) and an ace (Aaron Nola). Atlanta is currently working on their young stars (Albies/Acuna) and their own ace (Sean Newcomb). There is a lot of parallels between these two teams, and I may have overlooked that coming into the season. The Braves are definitely on my radar now. This is only the beginning of a not-so-peaceful transition of power in the NL East.  

Written by Matt Loehle