Are Colorado’s NCAA Tournament Hopes Over?

Colorado, like many other teams across the nation, have had a pretty disappointing season.  Finishing the first half of the regular season with an 0-7 record in the PAC 12, CU failed to match the successes they saw last season.  The Buffaloes definitely had a terrible start to the season, but their season isn’t over yet.  With a fairly easy second half of the season remaining, Colorado could still pull off an NCAA tournament appearance even with an atrocious 0-7 start in Conference play.  Colorado’s play style has grown and evolved since their terrible loss to Colorado State earlier this season, and led by Tad Boyle, one of the greatest coaches to ever coach the University of Colorado Buffs, Colorado might be on the verge of their 5th tournament appearance in 6 years.  

Tonight, CU exemplified their improvement in play as they took on an underrated Washington squad.  The last time these two teams met, CU suffered a close overtime loss in Seattle.  Tonight, Washington was missing a crucial piece.  With potential first overall pick, Markelle Fultz, out with an injury, David Crisp, who has had a solid season, would replace Fultz as starting Point Guard tonight, and Colorado would be missing their two top rebounders, Xavier Johnson and Wesley Gordon, to injuries.  But even with these minor setbacks, Colorado still had a huge advantage with Fultz being inactive tonight.  Going 3-1 in the last four games, all of which were against in Conference teams, a weaker Washington team would have to stop CU’s momentum that they’ve maintained for the last few weeks.

Colorado’s defense has absolutely been their strongest aspect this season.  Not their 3 point shooting, which is either stellar or dreadful depending on the night, not their efficiency at rebounding at both ends of the court, not their ability to draw fouls in the paint, but their defense.  In this game alone Colorado forced Washington to commit 14 turnovers over 7 different players that led to Colorado scoring 14 of their 81 points off turnovers.  Their ability to guard even the toughest competition effectively and force teams to commit careless turnovers and ineffective drives has been the key to their gameplay all season.  Like their extremely impressive win against #10 Oregon, Colorado was able to start the game off strong and completely dominate on both ends of the court throughout regulation.  In fact, Colorado led for 95.8% of the game tonight, further proving that their chances of making the NCAA tournament are far from dead.

However, Colorado still needs to make some much needed changes before they can play a game after March 14th.  Even though their play style has improved, they still rely heavily on points in the paint.  48 of the 81 total points tonight came from points in the paint tonight, showcasing their dependency on close range shots.  If Colorado is forced into a matchup against a team with solid defense in the paint, they’ll probably find themselves having to shoot primarily from beyond the arc, which based on this season, can easily be described as hit or miss.  Also, whenever they aren’t forcing key turnovers and capitalizing on fast paced breakaways, the CU offense can be described as sluggish and stiff, often resulting in excessive passing around the perimeter when the opportunity to score an easy two in the paint isn’t available.  If Colorado wants to solidify their chances of making a tournament appearance, they need to be as dominant on offense as they are on defense.

It’s important to note that even if they fail to make the tournament this year, they have still had an extremely impressive run with Tad Boyle as Head Coach.  Since taking on the position in 2010, Boyle has led the Buffs to 4 tournament appearances in 5 seasons, including a Conference Tournament Championship in 2012.  In fact, under Tad Boyle’s watch, CU was able to reach the Round of 32 for the first time in 15 years, causing him to become the winningest post-season coach in the organization’s history.  If CU can make it to the tournament this year, it will be because the greatest coach the program has ever seen has led them to yet another successful season.

As hard as it might be for Colorado fans to believe, I think they can still make the NCAA tournament this year.  Colorado performs best at home, with a record of 10-3 when playing in Boulder.  For the remainder of the regular season, every game will be played in Boulder, Colorado, with the exception of their only road game in Eugene, Oregon against the Ducks.  The most realistic scenario would be that CU drops 2 games to Cal and Oregon allowing them to finish 8-10 in Conference play and 18-13 overall.  This record would probably put them as the 7th best team in the PAC 12, which could be enough to send them to the first round of March Madness.  Going 4-1 in their last 5 games, it’s safe to say that this isn’t the same team we saw at the beginning of the regular season, and this new and improved Colorado team could be playing the nation’s best in a little over a month from today.

Also, for those of you who follow our Twitter page (@_tailgatesports), you will know that we covered tonight’s game live in Boulder, Colorado.  To watch our coverage of the game, or to view any live events we will be covering in the near future, add us on Snapchat (@tailgatesports)!

Written by Erik Clark