Alex Bregman – 2017 MVP Candidate?

(Image via “Climbing Tal’s Hill”)

            The Astros farm system has been pumping out high-quality prospects for the past few years. George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Vince Velasquez (now on the Phillies), and now Alex Bregman. It’s fascinating to watch, primarily because these guys are making an immediate impact in the major leagues. The success of these players is more than just a manifestation of raw talent; it reflects Houston’s ability to maximize the development of their prospects. After playing in only 49 games last season, it might be too early to label Alex Bregman as the latest success story of the Houston farm system. However, when looking ahead to the 2017 season, everything seems to be pointing to Bregman having a breakout year. By his standards, a breakout year could mean a jump straight into MVP consideration. Too far?

            Alex Bregman checks all the boxes of a superstar’s mold. He has the prospect pedigree, the stellar minor league (and major league) performance, and a system that will maximize his talent without adding too much pressure on his growth. It sounds strikingly similar to the position Corey Seager was in prior to the 2016 season: a hyped-up prospect who performed well in a short major league stint, then jumped straight into MVP consideration with his first full year. Like Seager, Alex Bregman was labeled as the ‘top prospect’ in his system, as well as being rated highly in Baseball America (8th by mid-season 2016). He was drafted 2nd overall in the 2015 draft, and displayed his immense talent when he fell a homer short of a cycle in the 2016 All-Star Futures Game. These accolades shouldn’t be taken lightly – recent ‘top prospects’ include MVP Kris Bryant, 2-time MVP Mike Trout, and MVP Bryce Harper. Bregman might have all the accolades and top-tier pedigree that precedes an MVP caliber player, but how well can the guy actually play?

Bregman was taken 2nd overall in 2015 by the Astros 

(Image via “MLB.com”)

Alex Bregman’s minor league stats might be the clearest indicator of how good he is right now; this is saying nothing about his “ceiling” or “potential”. To put it simply, Bregman was too good for the minors. Through 80 games in the minors, he batted .306 with 20 homers and 7 steals… and had more walks than strikeouts. Daniel Murphy, whose stellar plate discipline led him to a .347 batting average last year and straight into the MVP discussion, did not even pull off that feat. Bregman will not get hurt by excessive strikeouts, which is the downfall for many talented hitters. The utter dominance that he showed last year reminds me of Kris Bryant, who never really faced adversity in the minors and was just toying with the pitchers towards the end.

            Once Bregman got the call to the majors last year, his 2-for-42 start had people questioning his ability to face major league pitching. It didn’t take long, however, for the young star to display his maturity and make the necessary adjustments. In his final 35 games, Bregman hit .313 with 8 homers. Let’s extrapolate those numbers over the course of a season, just for fun: .300-plus batting average, 30 homers, 10 steals, and about 70 walks. Those numbers would certainly thrust Bregman into the MVP race. If anything, some of his peripheral stats (like runs and RBI’s) will improve after a full season in the Astros dynamic offense. He is slated to hit in the 2-hole, behind Springer and ahead of Jose Altuve. With a huge number of plate appearances in one of best offenses in baseball, it’s not hard to see Bregman reaching MVP-caliber numbers. The guy is a complete, talented hitter growing up in a great team culture. The suffocating pressure to perform at a high level will be alleviated because of all the talent and superstardom around him.

            Everything adds up. Alex Bregman is poised to throw his hat in the ring for 2017 AL MVP, among the likes of Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, and Mike Trout. Just wait and see.

Written by Matt Loehle