Mitch’s Gambling Corner: August 21st 2018

Hi my name is Mitch Rivers and I welcome you to a new Series presented by Tailgate Sports, giving nightly advice on the best bets to make. Stay tuned through the MLB Season and the NFL Season to make some $$$$.

My Five Best Bets Tonight

 Odds based on Bovada

1. Philadelphia Philles (Vince Velasquez) (+115) at Washington Nationals (Tanner Roark)

Let’s face it, the Nationals are underachieving. There are two teams (Phillies and Braves) ahead of them in the division. The World Series predictions from the beginning of the season are no more. The Phillies, on the other hand, are not on the best stretch in their last 10 (4-6), but it is still a game better than the Nationals over their last 10 (3-7). One of the games the Phillies won over their last ten was against the best team in baseball, the Boston Red Sox. Velasquez was on fire until his last start he allowed 4 hits and 4 walks in 2 1/3 innings, which ballooned his last 3 game ERA to 4.97, while Roark has a 2.61 ERA over his last 3 starts. Over the season, they have both been similar pitchers with ERAs of 4.13 (yes, they both have the same season ERA). This game will come down to the offenses and the importance to the playoff picture and for that, along with the odds (+125), bet Phillies moneyline.

     2. Baltimore Orioles (Dylan Bundy) at Toronto Blue Jays (Sam Gaviglio) (-1.5 runs) (+140)

Yeah, the odds aren’t great for the Blue Jays with the moneyline (-147), but the Orioles are the worst team in baseball and it is not even close so let’s take the 1.5 run spread to get favorable odds. Dylan Bundy got lit up against the METS, yes, you read that right, THE METS. The pitchers for both teams have season ERAs around five, but as of late, the orioles have just given up. The only reason they even have a good player is because Adam Jones exercised his 10-5 rights. The Orioles are punting this season and probably a few to come. No brainer, bet Blue Jays

    3.  Cleveland Indians (Shane Bieber) at Red Sox (Nathan Eovaldi) (-1.5 runs) (+150)

The Indians scored a rare win against the Red Sox. The red sox this season have not been a streaky team, they’ve consistently been winning. This is one of the handful of occurrences this year that the Red Sox have lost 2 games in a row. Losing again would only be the second time this season that the Red Sox lost 3 days in a row. With baseball being a game of averages, I do not believe that they lose again tonight. The pitching matchup is Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 1.99 ERA with the Red Sox this season, versus Shane Bieber who has a 4.37 ERA. The Red Sox tend to feast against mediocre pitchers, especially one with a 1.41 WHIP and a 10.7 hits per nine. The Red Sox will win this game and it will be by at least two runs.

     4. Over 9 Runs (-110) (Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox)

When the Red Sox get to a starter, they can do a lot of damage and tonight they have that opportunity. On the other hand, the Red Sox bullpen is quite vulnerable to giving up runs late in games. 9 runs were scored last night in the Kluber Porcello matchup, it only makes sense that more than 9 runs will be scored tonight. The odds for this wager are basically even and let’s be honest, it’s just too much fun to bet the over.

      5. Over 8 Runs (+105) (New York Yankees at Miami Marlins)

The Yankees are good, nobody needs to say that but the question is why are they good? The Yankees are good because of their offense. They have had mediocre pitchers as of late. Tanaka is pitching tonight and has an ERA of 5.17 over his last three games. Pablo Lopez is pitching for the Marlins and has an ERA of 4.79 over the season. The Yankees have struggled with subpar teams and have lost to the Marlins this season. This game is just asking for 10+ runs to be scored so 8 runs with favorable odds is a very solid bet that has a good chance of paying off, even if the Marlins don’t score a run.