San Diego’s Final Hope: The Padres

San Diego is one of those depressing sports towns that has never claimed a modern North American professional sports championship. The city is still waiting for that iconic championship moment that puts them on top of the sports world. It’s been a rough half-century for San Diego sports fans, and the news isn’t getting any better after the recent move by the Chargers to relocate to Los Angeles. This continues the trend of San Diego losing its sports teams to bigger markets. Back in the 1960’s, the Rockets used to be centered in San Diego before moving to Houston in 1971. Some years later the Clippers were a San Diego-based team, but they bailed for Los Angeles in 1984. And now the Chargers? Between the messy divorces with its sports teams and the constant heartache of not winning, the city just can’t seem to catch a break. San Diego is now left with only the Padres, the small market baseball team that hasn’t tasted the playoffs in 10 years, to fill up the spotlight of an entire city. So what does their future really look like? How far off are the Padres from being a relevant MLB team in October?

Frankly, a whole lot of things need to go right if the Padres are to be a legitimate contender in the next decade. They have pieces, but the farm system is not deep enough to give them guaranteed success in the future (like the White Sox or Braves). Two of their top pitching prospects, Anderson Espinoza and Adrian Morejon, are teenagers and thus have a number of question marks circling some incredible raw stuff. If they turn out to be aces – fantastic. Even still, you are looking at 5 years away from complete development for these kids. The Padres outfield might be a bigger reason for excitement: they have two super prospects (Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot) projected to start in 2017. Renfroe has 30+ home run power already, and Margot adds elite defense with a high-average approach to the plate. However, you got to believe there will be some growing pains – lack of plate discipline and a high strikeout rate tend to be exposed in the majors. The Padres will also need potential ace closer Carter Capps to return from Tommy John surgery at full strength. Wil Myers needs to keep putting up big numbers in 4-5 years from now when the Padres are actually contending. General Manager AJ Preller is going to need to get lucky either in the draft or through trades, because the Padres still are going to need more pieces, like some back end starters and a little more firepower in the lineup.

On top of everything, the Padres will need to hope that the NL West division clears up a little. The Dodgers and Giants have a stranglehold atop the standings, as both are generally in the mix for the playoffs every year. If the Rockies can develop some pitching, they have the potential to be a deadly team as well. Then you have Arizona. The Diamondbacks are the definition of mediocre, and I simply don’t see much in their future for them to be a roadblock to the Padres in 2022.  Although, a lot can change between now and then.

Basically, all hope is not lost for San Diego. Yes, losing your NFL team is a major blow to the hometown sports fans. But now the entire city will be more invested in the Padres, so perhaps heightened pressure and more accountability can steer the one San Diego team in the right direction. The Padres will need a number of pieces to fall into place, but after the Kershaw-Bumgarner era we might see a shifting in power out there in the NL West. Plus, PetCo Field might be one of the most beautiful baseball stadiums in the league; San Diego has at least something going right for them.  

Written by Matt Loehle