Machado in Dodger Blue: The Pros and Cons of the Deal
July 20, 2018The big domino of the 2018 trade season has officially fallen, with Manny Machado set to join the Los Angeles Dodgers. The two teams had to overcome a couple medical hiccups, but in the end, LA will be sending five prospects to Baltimore in a game-changing megadeal. Although not the most surprising move, Machado joining the Dodgers has the potential to tilt the playoff odds in their favor. Here’s some of my knee-jerk reactions to this deal.
This was a huge win for the Dodgers. In a previous article, I pegged Machado-to-the-Dodgers as an A-minus move. That, however, was under the assumption that Los Angeles would have to give up its top prospect, Alex Verdugo. Not only did they avoid giving up their top prospect, but they also saved their 2nd and 3rd best as well. The deal was centered around 21-year-old outfielder Yusniel Diaz, the Dodgers’ 4th overall prospect. He’s obviously talented (hitting .312 in AA ball this year), but he was included in this deal primarily to fill gaps in the Orioles’ farm system. I am sure that the Dodgers were more than willing to part with Diaz for Machado, a top-5 player in all of baseball. The other prospects included in this deal were much lower down in the Dodgers’ system. No disrespect, but its not really worth mentioning them here. The Dodgers sacrificed quantity for quality, and got the best player/projected player in the deal. I would grade this deal as a solid A for the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are once again favorites to come out of the NL and win the World Series. Not only do they acquire an MVP candidate, but they simultaneously prevent that guy from going to their playoff competition (Phillies, Brewers, or Cubs). Machado also gives the Dodgers more flexibility and depth on the field. Chris Taylor can stick to playing the outfield. The infield can now be two players deep at all positions, making potential injuries much less impactful. That isn’t even addressing what his bat brings to the table. Plugging Machado (.315, 24 home runs) into any lineup is an enormous addition. Putting him on a playoff frontrunner is even better.
Machado seems like a true rental in this scenario. Corey Seager and Justin Turner are locked in through the 2020 season, and they are both highly capable players. That is what makes this trade so interesting. Machado is the temporary replacement/upgrade for Seager, who is out for the year after getting Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers will have to pay Clayton Kershaw after this year, and Manny Machado is in line to make upwards of $350 million. I don’t see a scenario playing out where the Dodgers commit to Machado long term.
To dovetail off my last point, renting Machado for two months portrays the Dodgers as going “all-in” for this season. That is misleading, because this franchise has a number of building blocks in place to continue being competitive for the next decade. Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias, and Alex Verdugo provide a great young foundation for a high-payroll team like the Dodgers. That being said, this era of Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw, Turner, Forsythe, Kemp, Utley, Kenley Jansen, Rich Hill) is nearing the end of its championship window. A lot of key older guys make up this Dodgers roster, meaning that plenty of holes are going to emerge in the coming years. That creates a sense of urgency to win now. Recent playoff failures contribute to the mounting pressure for the 2018 Dodgers. Falling short again would be even more crushing for Dodgers fans now that Machado has entered the equation.
Overall, I like the move for the Dodgers. Their future is relatively stable, with or without those five prospects that got flipped for Machado. It was paramount for this team to make a move to get them over the hump and win the World Series. Does this trade increase the Dodgers’ playoff chances? Absolutely. Will it be the move that finally pushes them over the top? That remains to be seen. This 2018 team is only marginally better than the 2017 Dodgers (remember, Seager was healthy for the playoffs last year and is out this year). But perhaps that’s all they need. One thing for sure, however, is that Manny Machado will now play a big role in the Dodgers’ 2018 championship campaign.
Written by Matt Loehle
