1 Favorite, 1 Dark Horse for AL and NL MVP
June 10, 2018By Matt Loehle, Senior Baseball Analyst
The All-Star Game is just about a month away, carrying with it the symbolic halfway point of the MLB season. MVP names are beginning to get floated out there, and the talk will only heat up as we get deeper into the season. Is it too early? Not really. Some players have seasons that are a tale of two halves, but for the most part, current stats can be used as an accurate predictor of how the rest of the season is going to play out. In the list below, I have a player from each league who is the frontrunner for MVP, both publicly and statistically. I also have two guys flying under the radar who really shouldn’t be; if their stats get extrapolated over the full season, it will be impossible to disregard their candidacy. A whole lot can happen over the next few months (injuries, slumps), so who knows? Maybe these guys will be in a different position when I revisit the MVP race in September.
American League MVP Favorite: Mike Trout
What else is new. Trout is the Kawhi Leonard of baseball – he performs at an absurdly elite level, year in and year out. However, he has no public personality and frankly, I don’t even know what his voice sounds like. But don’t let his fierce silence cause you to overlook him. He is the best, most consistent baseball player of this generation. Trout wasn’t in the discussion at the end of last year due to his thumb injury, and maybe that’s why he isn’t receiving as much buzz as he should be right now. The stats are right on pace with his career-best numbers: .305 batting average, 19 home runs, 39 RBI, 52 walks, and 13 steals. The Angels are a few games off first place in a stacked AL West, and they are statistically a top-10 offense in baseball. Trout is the biggest reason why the Angels should make the playoffs this year. He is the deadliest hitter in baseball at only 26 years old, and should probably win his 3rd MVP award this year.
American League MVP Dark Horse: Jose Ramirez
All the talk about Trout, Betts, and JD Martinez has been a little bit disrespectful to Mr. Jose Ramirez. Maybe not quite the household name as the other three, Ramirez has had every bit as impressive of a season as them. He broke out as a legit superstar in 2016, had an All-Star season in 2017, and should be in the MVP discussion this year. He is the best hitter on the Indians, slashing .294 with 19 home runs, 43 RBI, and 7 stolen bases. His batting average would be even higher if not for an early season slump, which should be long forgotten at this point. The 3rd baseman has helped the Indians to a steady 1st place lead in the AL Central. If he continues at this pace (he keeps getting better as the season progresses!) Jose Ramirez could be a surprise MVP victor in 2018.
National League MVP Favorite: Freddie Freeman
The Braves are probably the coolest story in baseball right now, as the young studs on that team have sped up the rebuilding process. They are just barely in 2nd place behind the Nationals in the NL East, and well-positioned to make a surprise playoff appearance. The anchor of this team, Freddie Freeman (just 28 years old) has been more than a steady veteran presence for this surging club. He has been downright overpowering. Freeman’s stats speak for themselves – .336 batting average, 11 homers, 44 RBI, 39 walks, and 5 stolen bases for good measure. The home run total is lagging a little behind the NL leaders, but Freddie is a complete hitter. The power will improve as the season goes on, making his stat line look like something out of a video game if he keeps this pace up. He has the great Braves storyline and elite stats to be the favorite for the NL MVP right now.
National League MVP Dark Horse: Scooter Gennett
A few years ago, he was a nobody. Just a .260 hitter with so few homers you could count them on your fingers. A couple of years of steady improvement may have flown under the radar, but there isn’t really any denying this guy’s talent anymore. Gennett is a star, and he’s running away with the NL batting title. His batting average is an eye-popping .345, and he’s got 12 homers to go along with it. If the power remains on the current 30+ home run pace, Gennett will bizarrely be one of the best hitters in baseball. Who saw that coming?? Definitely not me – he was the kind of guy I took at the end of a fantasy draft to fill my empty 2B slot. Now he is justifiably in the MVP discussion with his performance thus far. His lack of name recognition and the Reds last-place record in the NL Central will likely prevent him from winning the award, but I feel I need to put some respect on his name anyway.
