2017 Masters Preview

The Masters is just 8 days away, and there are some massive storylines to follow leading up to the tournament. Any one of the players (certainly JT, Bubba, Rickie, etc.) in the field could bring home the green jacket, but one thing is certain; golf fans are in for an exciting first major of the season.

First and foremost, let’s talk about Dustin Johnson. After overtaking Rory McIlroy and Jason Day for the world #1 ranking, DJ has been on a tear. He rose to the top of the rankings by winning the Genesis Open in February, and followed that up by winning back to back WGC events in Mexico and Austin, firmly planting himself in the #1 spot. The last player to win three starts in a row was McIlroy in 2014, and DJ joins an exclusive list of back to back to back winners that includes names like Hogan, Palmer, Nicklaus, Woods and Player. The scariest thing about Johnson’s recent winning spree is that he may not even be done winning. In the presser after his win at the Dell, DJ said that his game was very solid but he still wasn’t playing his best golf. That’s just absurd to comprehend, especially considering that he’s averaging over 315 yards off the tee and is picking up 2.953 shots on the field in Strokes Gained: Total. One has to think that DJ is the favorite heading into the Masters. His preferred left to right shot shape is some cause for concern, as it contradicts the high draw required off the tee on many holes, though I think that can be overcome with the overpowering manner in which he plays most golf courses. The real wild card for DJ will be his flat stick. He is currently picking up about half a stroke on the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, but will that hold up on Augusta’s tricky, undulating greens? With a strong putting performance throughout the week, look for DJ to be slipping on the green jacket come Sunday.

Another horse for the course at Augusta is the 2015 winner Jordan Spieth. In three trips to Augusta, Spieth has never finished worse than T2 following his collapse last year. Spieth is already a winner this year at Pebble, and has a pair of T3’s to go along with it. However, failure to make it out of the pod stage at the WGC Dell was arguably a result of shaky putting that seeped into the rest of his game. Also, there are still major questions about whether the former world #1 has truly buried his demons with National’s treacherous 12th hole. I personally think that Spieth has made amends, especially since last year’s 7 was a result of poor iron play throughout the week, as well as a compilation of bad decisions. On top of that, Spieth played two preparation rounds in December, both of which resulted in birdie on the 12th, and his much improved iron play from last year to this year should make him an automatic contender. Should Spieth continue his phenomenal putting from previous years at Augusta, as well as his consistency with the irons, look for him to be making room in his wardrobe for yet another green jacket.

One of the new faces at this year’s tournament is up and coming Tour star Jon Rahm. Following his win at Torrey Pines, Rahm has been in contention seemingly every week, backing up his win with a T5, T3 and solo 2nd at the AT&T, WGC Mexico, and WGC Dell (respectively). The fact that Rahm has been in contention in some of the strongest fields on Tour is a testimony to how his win at Torrey and his rise to 14th in the OWGR are no fluke. He is able to generate enormous amounts of power in a short, compact swing, allowing him to consistently launch it into the short grass. However, much of his recent success is a result of a vast improvement with the flat stick, and consistent putting is certainly a requirement to win at Augusta. A cause for concern I have with Rahm is that while he has the right shot shape, his low, penetrating ball flight may make it difficult to hole some of the firm greens (though rain is forecasted throughout the week, which may help to soften them up a bit). Another thing is that no Masters rookies in the past 35 years have won the tournament. The last player to do so was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Therefore, with a major-strength field, look for Rahm to be in the top half of the field, but not necessarily in contention on Sunday. With so many other favorites, Rahm will need to have a strong putting performance throughout the week, as well as an assist from Mother Nature in order to have a chance at slipping on the green jacket come Sunday.

He’s definitely not a new face, but I feel that Phil Mickelson could have a strong showing during Masters week. Lefty is 46 years old, but he certainly hasn’t been playing like it recently. So far this season, Phil has three top 10 finishes, including a T7 and a T5 at the WGC events, and he also has an additional three top 25’s that form an impressive 2017 season. It’s hard to believe that Phil hasn’t won since the 2013 Open at Muirfield, but he certainly has had some close calls. Two that come to mind are the 2016 Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where Vaughn Taylor fired a final round 65 to edge out Phil by one stroke, and the 2016 Open at Troon, where a final round 65 wasn’t good enough to overcome eventual winner Henrik Stenson’s unreal final round of 63. Phil is the type of player to catch all of the bad breaks (as evidenced by his 6 runner-up finishes at the US Open), yet despite everything, he still has three green jackets to his name. Phil’s biggest problems this year are the amount of costly mistakes he makes. Though he ranks inside the top 5 in birdie average, he is T102 on Tour in bogey avoidance. Basically, he is still more than capable of scoring on National’s tough layout, but gives too many strokes back to remain in contention during the weekend. Phil is more than experienced at Augusta, and is a seasoned veteran who is able to perform under pressure. Should he be able to avoid the squares on the scorecard and possibly string together a couple of clean rounds, look for Phil to re-enter the winner’s circle next week.

Rory McIlroy will continue his quest for the career grand slam next week, as he attempts to win for the first time at Augusta. Rory’s game sets up perfectly for the course, as his high draw off the tee, as well as his high ball flight on approach shots put him in the perfect position to attack tucked pins and give him more scoring opportunities than most. Forecasted rain may take some of the greens, but I still believe that McIlroy’s shot shape and ball flight give him a huge advantage. However, there are reasons why Rory hasn’t completed the grand slam, and one of them is that he has a history with the course. In 2011, Rory had a four shot lead heading into the final round, but lost it on the back 9, shooting an 80 to vault him out of contention. Since then, he’s had a few solid finishes, but has never really managed to work his way back into contention on the weekend. The pressure of completing the slam and winning a major, as well as overcoming his 2011 collapse, are mentally taxing. Look for this to affect him to some extent on the weekend. Also, historically speaking, Rory has been a streaky putter at best, which is something that will keep him from being in contention at Augusta. His new putter seems to have improved his game to a certain extent, but will it be enough to conquer Augusta’s slippery greens? The final thing that concerns me about Rory is that he is coming off a recent rib injury, and may not be ready to play at the level of a major champion. I don’t doubt that he has recovered healthwise, but his game was dormant for a few months while he recovered. He’s played solid golf since his return at the WGC Mexico, but he’s still a little rusty. If Rory has anything less than his A game next week, he’d be lucky to even make the cut. Overall, I think this is not the year that Rory completes the grand slam. The weather, his putter, and the rust in his game stemming from the rib injury will all keep him from being a factor at this year’s tournament. However, should he stay healthy and consistent with the flat stick, look for him to be a favorite come this time next year.

Two other players that are up in the air about playing this year are Tiger Woods and Jason Day. Tiger has been battling his back for some time now, and it does not look good for Big Cat being in the field next week. It’s sad to see how a player who won 79 times, including 14 majors, has been reduced to nothing more than a distant memory. At one time, Tiger winning a tournament would be no big deal, but now when he wins a putting contest on Good Morning America, the media goes crazy over it. I did have hope for a comeback after he played in the Hero in December, but yet again, he pushed himself too much and too soon, and his back suffered as a result. At this point if he can even make it back on Tour, it would be a minor miracle. As for Jason Day, his mom is obviously battling cancer, and Day wants to spend more time with her while she recovers. I think there’s about a 50/50 chance that Day plays this year. He has said numerous times that family always comes before golf, and though his mother is urging him to keep playing, if there are any more setbacks with her recovery, I think that Day will definitely sit this one out. Should he play, it would be interesting to see how Denning’s situation will affect him on the course. He’s obviously an emotional player, and I could see him either missing the cut as a result, or going on a tear and blowing the field out of the water. However, I think that it is more likely than not that the world #3 will not be in the field next week.

Masters Odds: Winner

Dustin Johnson: 6:1

Jordan Spieth: 7:1

Rory McIlroy: 15:2

Jason Day: 18:1

Jon Rahm: 22:1

Phil Mickelson: 25:1

Tiger Woods: 100:1

(via BetStars, March 29, 2017)

Written by Paul Choma